The head of JPMorgan estimated the risk of a stock correction at 30%. But it's not the AI bubble that worries him

The head of JPMorgan Jamie Dimon believes that the probability of a serious correction in the stock market is equal to 30%. This is three times higher than the average forecasts of market participants. According to him, the world is entering a period of heightened uncertainty amid geopolitical tensions, increased government spending and remilitarization, and the main priority of governments should be to strengthen defense security.

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon told the BBC he was far more concerned than his colleagues about the prospect of a major stock market correction.

"If the market is pricing in a 10% probability [of a correction], I would say it's more like 30%. I'm not saying it will happen as soon as next year - these things are extremely difficult to predict," the JPMorgan chief said. He declined to give an exact timeline, but suggested it could happen within six months to two years. "The level of uncertainty I think is higher than usual," the banker added.

Among the threats, Jamie Dimon named geopolitical tensions, rising government spending and the remilitarization of the world. He emphasized that any of these issues could cause a crisis for which markets and the world as a whole would not be prepared.

Dimon cited global geopolitical instability as the biggest risk facing the economy today. He urged the authorities to focus on strengthening defense capabilities.

"People say you should hoard cryptocurrencies, but I always say you should hoard bullets, guns and bombs. The world has become much more dangerous, and I would prefer security to the lack of it," said the head of JPMorgan.

Commenting on the situation with the threat to the independence of the US Federal Reserve System, Dimon expressed confidence that the Fed will remain independent despite the pressure and criticism from Donald Trump against its head Jerome Powell. However, he expressed concern that amid rising inflation, the Fed will not be able to cut rates to the levels the market is hoping for.

At the same time, the head of JPMorgan noted that he does not share the fears of many people about the artificial intelligence bubble, which, according to some economists, may repeat the dot-com scenario of the early 2000s. According to him, investments in AI will bring a return, although some of the invested funds will probably be "lost".

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor