The US has gone to war with Iran. What will happen to oil prices?

The US has struck Iran, hitting three nuclear facilities. This means a direct armed clash between the US and Iran. Earlier, Tehran threatened to strike American military bases in the Middle East in case of Washington's intervention. Analysts also allow Iran to block the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world oil traffic passes;

U.S. President Donald Trump on the night of June 22 reported on the social media network Truth Social that the U.S. Air Force had struck nuclear facilities in Iran.

«We have successfully completed the attack on three nuclear sites in Iran - Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan. All aircraft have left Iranian airspace. A full complement of bombs was dropped on the main site - Fordow,» the US president said.

In an address to the nation, Trump also announced that the U.S. is ready to launch more strikes on Iran if it does not make peace.

On June 21, several U.S. Air Force B-2 bombers took off from an air base in Missouri and headed west across the Pacific, wrote Reuters. The planes are among the few in the U.S. arsenal capable of carrying the 13.6-ton GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) bomb, known as an «anti-bunker bomb.»

According data to Fox News, the US used six anti-bunker bombs in strikes on Iran's Fordow nuclear facility. The bombs were dropped from U.S. B-2 stealth bombers. And 30 Tomahawk missiles launched from U.S. submarines were used in attacks on the Nanatz and Isfahan facilities.

The Fordow underground base was the main target because it was where Iran was enriching uranium to levels approaching weapons-grade, Fox News explains.

An Iranian official quoted by the Tasnim news agency confirmed that part of the Fordow facility had been subjected to «enemy airstrikes», wrote Reuters.

The decision to attack Iran draws the U.S. back into active hostilities in the Middle East - something Trump has promised to avoid in his second term as president, noted CNBC. 

 Now the diplomatic avenue for reaching an agreement on Iran's nuclear program may be finally closed, the TV channel states. Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei recently said that «any US military intervention will inevitably lead to irreparable damage».

«If they decide to act militarily, they will face damage from which they will not be able to recover,» he added in a statement read on Iranian state television (quoted by CNBC).

As recently as a week ago, the U.S. began evacuating military families from countries in the Middle East where it has military bases, assuming Iran could strike them;

Another of Iran's possible moves that could directly affect the global economy and supply chains is to mine the Strait of Hormuz, noted Halima Croft, head of commodities strategy at RBC Capital Markets on CNBC.

The narrow waterway between Iran and Oman is a transit route for about 20% of the world's oil transported by tanker. Installing the mines would effectively paralyze traffic in the strait. Croft said QatarEnergy and Greece's Ministry of Shipping have already warned their ships to avoid the Strait of Hormuz if possible after Iran began jamming GPS signals in the strait, causing several tankers to collide.

More such warnings are expected after Saturday's U.S. strike on Iranian nuclear facilities, CNBC writes.

Oil has risen in price by about 10% since the start of Israel's strikes on Iran. With oil supplies not yet disrupted, WTI and Brent remained below $80 a barrel by the close of trading on Friday. However, the risk of supply disruptions could trigger a price spike as the conflict escalates, noted CNBC.

One risk is that Iran's leadership is likely to target regional oil targets if it feels its very existence is threatened, analysts polled by CNBC said. Further political destabilization in Iran «could lead to a significant and sustained rise in oil prices,» warned Natasha Kaneva, head of global commodities research at JPMorgan, in a note that is quoted by the network.

According to JPMorgan, there have been eight instances of regime change in major oil-producing countries since 1979. As a result of these events, oil prices on average peaked at 76% and then stabilized at about 30% higher than pre-crisis levels.

For example, according to the bank, after the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran, oil prices nearly tripled between mid-1979 and mid-1980. This triggered a global economic recession.

According to JPMorgan, the revolution in Libya, which overthrew Muammar Gaddafi in 2011, caused a jump in oil prices from $93 a barrel in January to $130 in April of the same year. This price rise coincided with the European debt crisis and almost led to a global recession, the bank notes.

A regime change in Iran would have a far greater impact on the global oil market than the events in Libya in 2011, as Iran is a much larger supplier of hydrocarbons, Scott Modell, CEO of consulting firm Rapidan Energy Group, a former CIA officer and Iran expert who served in the Middle East, emphasized in an interview with CNBC.

«The market will only start to consider the possibility of losing more than three million bpd when there are serious signs that the state is paralyzed and regime change becomes real,» he said.

If the Iranian government concludes that it has found itself in an existential threat situation, it could use its arsenal of short-range missiles against the region's energy facilities and tankers in the Persian Gulf, warned Halima Croft, head of global commodities strategy at RBC Capital Markets.