Top story for the morning: aluminum rises in price, BYD loses investor confidence

The U.S. and China are trying to establish a dialog on trade and TikTok, while the Fed is preparing for a rate decision, pushing up Asian indices and metal prices. In China, a price war in the electric car sector has cost BYD $45 billion in market value. About these and other topics - in our review of key events by the morning of September 15.

A new round of talks between the U.S. and China on trade, the fate of TikTok and pressure on Beijing over its purchases of Russian oil kicked off in Madrid on Sunday, CNBC reported. This is the fourth meeting in four months after Geneva, London and Stockholm, where the two sides agreed on temporary trade truces.

The main outcome of the current negotiations can only be the postponement of the deadline for ByteDance to sell TikTok in the US - from September 17 to a later date. Earlier, Congress demanded a forced sale due to national security threats, but the White House is inclined to another postponement, which is displeasing to both parties. More substantive agreements, according to experts, the US and China may save for a possible meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping in October.

The US is also pushing G7 allies to impose duties on imports from China and India to force them to stop buying Russian oil.

Shares of Chinese electric car maker BYD in Hong Kong have fallen more than 30% from their April peak, resulting in a $45 billion capitalization loss, Bloomberg writes. Investors are questioning the company's strategy of aggressive discounting, which led to the first drop in quarterly profits in three years - by 30%. At the same time, rivals Geely and Leapmotor are consolidating their positions, and Beijing is stepping up pressure on price "involution" that is hurting the industry.

BYD has lowered its sales forecast for 2025 to 4.6 million cars versus the previous 5.5 million, which would require the near-impossible task of delivering 1.7 million cars in the final months of the year. The company has delayed the launch of new models until 2026 to make them more competitive, but its outdated lineup is playing against it, the agency points out. Analysts expect fresh releases with God's Eye autopilot and improved batteries to be a key stock catalyst.

Despite problems at home, BYD is ramping up overseas sales and could exceed 1 million vehicles in 2025, ahead of its own target. The stock trades at a multiple of 17 versus an industry average of 20, and analysts believe a bet on technology leadership could regain investor interest and change perceptions of the company.

Most Asian bourses rose on Monday amid expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut its key rate this week for the first time this year, Yahoo Finance reported. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index added 0.4 percent, the Shanghai Composite rose 0.2 percent and Seoul's Kospi gained 0.4 percent. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 lost 0.3%, while trading in Japan was closed due to a holiday.

China's economic data for August showed a slowdown: retail sales grew by 3.4%, industrial production - by 5.2%. Analysts note that Trump's duties have undermined the export driver of the Chinese economy, and the transition to domestic demand is slow.

Aluminum rose in price for the seventh consecutive session, reaching $2705 per ton - the maximum since March, amid expectations of the Fed's decision to reduce the rate, Bloomberg writes. Investors are betting on monetary easing, which weakens the dollar and supports industrial metals.

Rising prices were also fueled by bids to take metal out of storage, reinforcing supply concerns. By 12:18 p.m. Singapore time, aluminum held at $2694.50 per ton (+0.2%), copper and zinc also added 0.2% each, while nickel rose marginally.

Shares of Chinese chip makers jumped to a daily limit of 20% after China's Ministry of Commerce announced an anti-dumping investigation against U.S. analog chips, Bloomberg reports. Texas Instruments and Analog Devices semiconductors may fall under the measures, which, according to Citi, will create advantages for local suppliers and allow them to gradually increase market share.

Authorities have also launched an investigation into U.S. "discriminatory measures" against China's chip sector, coinciding with preparations for new U.S.-China trade talks.

- Japan's broad Topix index was up 0.4 percent.

- The benchmark Nikkei 225 was up 0.9 percent.

- In South Korea, the Kospi index was up 0.4%, while the Kosdaq small-company index was up 0.35%.

- Australia's S&P/ASX 200 was down 0.2 percent.

- Futures on the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and Dow Jones Industrial Average were little changed.

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor