Top story for the morning: Goldman predicts oil at $110, bitcoin and gold prices fall

The escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, caused by US and Israeli strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities, provoked an increase in geopolitical tensions and movement in global markets. The cost of Brent at one point exceeded $81, and Goldman Sachs warned that in the case of blocking the Strait of Hormuz, the price of a barrel could temporarily reach $110. Bitcoin, in turn, fell below $99,000, and gold, traditionally considered a «safe haven,» initially rose in price but then retreated slightly as investors questioned the likelihood of further escalation. These and other topics are in our review of key events for the morning of June 23.

Goldman Sachs warned that a possible disruption to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz could cause oil and gas prices to spike, reports Reuters.

According to Goldman's forecast, the price of Brent crude could briefly reach $110 per barrel if supplies across the strait are cut in half for a month and remain reduced by 10% for the next 11 months. Then, the bank expects prices to normalize, with Brent trading at an average of $95 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025.

According to data from the Polymarket platform, despite low liquidity, prediction markets put the probability of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz this year at 52%, Goldman noted. 

One of the bank's scenarios suggests that Brent could peak at $90 per barrel if Iranian oil supplies decline by 1.75 million bpd. In another scenario, in which Iranian production levels remain stably low, the oil price could also reach $90 but stabilize in the $70-80 per barrel range in 2026 due to declining inventories and global spare capacity.

«While the situation in the Middle East remains volatile, we believe that economic incentives - including for the U.S. and China - will be strong enough to try to prevent a prolonged and severe disruption of passage through the Strait of Hormuz,» Goldman said in its analysis.

According to Iran's Press TV, the final decision on closing the strait after the US airstrikes should be made by Iran's Supreme National Security Council. Earlier it was reported that the country's parliament supported this measure.

Heightened conflict in the Middle East and renewed inflation fears have sparked a sharp selloff in digital assets, writes CNBC. Bitcoin dipped below the $99,000 mark on Sunday, its lowest in more than a month. Ethereum was losing more than 10% at its peak, while Solana, XRP and Dogecoin also fell sharply in price.

By the end of the day, the market partially recovered. Bitcoin was trading just below $101,000 - a decline of about 1% over the day, while Ethereum cut its losses to 2.5%, reaching about $2200.

The reason for the sell-off was a combination of geopolitical shock and macroeconomic concerns. Iran threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz, a strategically important route through which about a quarter of the world's oil supply passes. JPMorgan warned that a complete blockage could raise oil prices to $130 a barrel.

According to data from analysts at The Kobeissi Letter, such a price hike could bring U.S. inflation back to the 5% level. The last time inflation was this high was in 2023, when the Fed was still actively raising rates. Such a forecast makes traders reconsider their rate forecast and withdraw money from speculative assets such as cryptocurrencies, the channel notes.

Gold fell slightly as global markets held their breath awaiting Iran's response to U.S. and Israeli airstrikes, reports Bloomberg.

Quotes of the precious metal fell to about $3360 per ounce after rising 0.8% earlier in trading. U.S. strikes on three major Iranian nuclear facilities supported the dollar, while oil prices jumped sharply amid concerns that Tehran could attack energy infrastructure in the Middle East or block shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.

The escalation of the conflict between Israel and Iran a week and a half ago gave a new impetus to the growth of gold prices, which has already risen by almost 30% since the beginning of the year. Theoretically, the US intervention in the conflict should support the demand for gold as a protective asset. However, a sustained rise in oil prices may accelerate inflation and reduce the likelihood of a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve - and this is a negative factor for gold, which does not generate interest income, the agency points out.

«The market is not yet convinced that a US attack on Iran will lead to a major escalation in geopolitical tensions,» said Daniel Hines, senior strategist at ANZ Banking Group. - That is why we do not see a mass withdrawal of investors into protective assets. Potential growth in demand for gold as a safe haven may be offset by concerns that rising oil prices will keep the Fed from cutting rates».

By 11:03 a.m. Singapore time, the spot price of gold was down 0.2 percent to $3361 an ounce. Bloomberg Dollar Spot index added 0.2%. The cost of silver was almost unchanged, platinum and palladium - fell.

Chinese chip developer Montage Technology has enlisted banks to prepare a stock offering in Hong Kong in which it plans to raise about $1 billion, sources told Bloomberg. The company, whose shares already trade in Shanghai, is working with China International Capital Corp. (CICC), Morgan Stanley and UBS Group AG on a possible offering, the sources said.

Montage Technology previously confirmed that it plans to list in Hong Kong, but did not provide details. According to sources, negotiations are still ongoing and plans may change.

A representative of UBS declined to comment. CICC, Morgan Stanley and Montage Technology themselves did not respond to inquiries.

The company went public on the Shanghai-based Star Board (a Nasdaq peer) in 2019 and is currently valued at about 93 billion yuan ($13 billion).

Chinese companies already listed on the mainland market are increasingly coming out with Hong Kong listings amid regulatory approval and limited domestic capital raising opportunities, the agency said. These listings have been a key factor in the recovery of activity in Hong Kong's financial market.

Asia-Pacific markets declined Monday after U.S. strikes on nuclear facilities in Iran sent oil prices soaring and heightened investor fears of escalating conflict in the Middle East, wrote CNBC. 

- The price of Brent crude oil soared 5.7% to $81.4 a barrel in early trading, but then partially trimmed the gains and was adding 1.8% at the time of publication, trading at $78.4. 

- Japan's Nikkei 225 index was down 0.2 percent, while the broader Topix index was down 0.4 percent. 

- In South Korea, the Kospi index lost 0.5% and the Kosdaq (small-cap companies) collapsed 1.3%. 

- In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index was down 0.1 percent and China's CSI 300 was down 0.2 percent.

- In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 index fell 0.5 percent.

- U.S. stock futures declined in Asian trading. Contracts on the Dow Jones index fell by 0.3%. Futures on the S&P 500 fell by 0.3%, and on the Nasdaq 100 - by 0.4%.

- On Friday, two of Wall Street's three key indices ended trading lower as investors watched the situation in the Middle East and assessed the prospects for a Fed rate cut. The S&P 500 index fell 0.2 percent to 5,967.84, recording its third consecutive session in the negative. The Nasdaq Composite lost 0.5% to close at 19,447.41. The Dow Jones rose 0.1% to 42,206.82.