U.S. stock indexes ended the shortened pre-holiday week at record levels. Employment data for June came in better than expected, which reduced fears of a downturn in the economy. The main event of the new week will be the expiration of a 90-day extension of increased duties against U.S. trading partners on July 9. So far, the Trump administration has only negotiated a handful of tariff agreements, and more than a hundred countries are in line for talks, writes Barron's.

"The most negative scenario is the imposition of previously announced high duties on all trading partners without trade agreements," quotes The Wall Street Journal review of UBS Global Wealth Management. According to the world's largest private wealth management bank, this would trigger a widespread flight from risk. If Trump postpones the imposition of duties again, markets may see it as a reluctance to move to implement them, which would support risk appetite, UBS analysts added.

From the point of view of the corporate calendar, the week on Wall Street promises to be relatively quiet, notes Barron's. Among the companies whose reports may affect the market, the publication singled out only Delta Air Lines and Levi Strauss. Investors' attention in Asia will be drawn to the data on June sales of TSMC, in Europe - to the preliminary results of Shell in the second quarter.

On Monday, July 7 British oil and gas giant Shell will release preliminary results  for the second quarter. While the truce between Iran and Israel remains in place, traders continue to keep a close eye on developments surrounding Iran's nuclear program, assessing its impact on the level of tension in the Middle East, reports Yahoo Finance. The company is due to present its quarterly financial report on July 31.

On Tuesday, July 8, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York will release its June report on consumer expectations. In May, U.S. consumers were preparing for inflation at 3.2% over the next 12 months. In April, their forecasts for annual price growth reached a 19-month high of 3.6%.

On Wednesday, July 9, the White House's 90-day delay in imposing duties expires. In that time, the US has had time to strike trade agreements with the UK and Vietnam, as well as negotiate a truce with China to continue talks. However, more than 100 countries are still waiting their turn, and as Trump said the other day, he does not intend to extend the deadline. At the same time, the president wrote that the tariffs announced in April will go into effect on August 1.

The Fed will publish the minutes of its June meeting. At that time, the rate remained at 4.25-4.5%. The Fed has been on pause since December 2024 and is not going to change course yet: a strong U.S. jobs report released last week virtually ruled out the possibility of a rate cut in July, confirms Barron's.

China will release inflation data for June. They will show whether deflationary pressures intensified in the second quarter. ING expects no improvement: the forecast for the consumer price index (CPI) is deflation of 0.1% year-on-year, while producer prices (PPI) are forecast to fall for the 33rd consecutive month. If the statistics turn out to be very weak, Beijing may step up support for the economy, writes WSJ.

On Thursday, July 10 the world's largest contract chip maker TSMC will release its June earnings data. 

Delta Air Lines and Levi Strauss will release quarterly earnings.

On Friday, July 11, the U.S. Treasury Department will release budget performance data for June. In the first eight months of the current fiscal year, which began in October 2024, the budget deficit of the world's largest economy rose to $1.4 trillion from $1.2 trillion in the same period last fiscal year.

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor

Share