Undeclared war: where will Israel's full-scale attack on Iran lead?

Israel's largest-ever attack on Iran dramatically raises the stakes in the conflict between the two warring countries, but it is too early to talk about a full-scale war: the Iranian authorities, having received another slap in the face from the Jewish state, will certainly be forced to respond, but will most likely be able to afford only a symbolic response. Nevertheless, this escalation may have far-reaching consequences, and not only for Israel and Iran, believes orientalist Ruslan Suleymanov;

In the early hours of Friday morning, June 13, Israel launched a series of airstrikes on Iranian territory. The Israeli side declared that its targets included Iranian nuclear and military facilities as well as Iranian military leaders. Some 200 Israeli fighter jets took part in the morning attack and hit more than 100 targets in Iran. 

The attacks did not end there. During the day, Israel continued to strike Iran;

Iran launched more than a hundred drones and ballistic missiles toward Israel. 

Israel's June 13 attack on Iran was unprecedented in power. But it certainly wasn't the first. In the spring and autumn of last year, the two warring states have already «exchanged» strikes. But back then, mutual shelling was more important for each side from the point of view of image, and the scale of the strikes was not so destructive;

Now the Israeli army has eliminated at least six Iranian nuclear physicists, as well as key representatives of the Islamic republic's military establishment. Among them are Chief of General Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces, Major General Mohammad Bagheri, Lieutenant General Gholam Ali Rashid, commander of the Iranian Armed Forces' Khatam-al-Anbiya central headquarters (Air Defense Headquarters), and Lieutenant General Hosein Salami, head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Also among the dead are Ali Shamkhani, an adviser to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and one of the chief negotiators on Iran's nuclear program;

Separately, it is worth mentioning the fallen Major General Ali Hajizad, who led the IRGC's aerospace program and was considered one of the architects of the Islamic Republic's ballistic missile program.

It was also the first time that nuclear facilities, including the Natanz uranium enrichment plant where uranium enrichment takes place, were attacked by Israel, asconfirmed by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

The current attack has also resulted in a considerable number of civilian casualties in the Islamic republic. According to the latest data of Iranian state media, 78 people were killed and 329 wounded as a result of the strikes. Previously, the authorities of the Jewish state, carrying out sabotage inside Iran, tried to avoid casualties among the local population.

The main triumphant of Israel's Operation  «Rising Lion» can undoubtedly be called one man - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Against the backdrop of more than 20 months of the worst war in the Gaza Strip, during which none of the set goals (the release of hostages and the complete destruction of the Palestinian radical movement Hamas) have been achieved so far, the policy of the Israeli Cabinet has been increasingly criticized - both at home and abroad.

Just a day before the large-scale attack, the Israeli Knesset voted on a bill to dissolve the parliament. By a narrow margin (61 to 53), Netanyahu's allies managed to block this opposition initiative.

Now, just as last year with every escalation with Iran, even Netanyahu's opponents will show unity and rally against a common enemy.

«When it comes to the security of the people of Israel in the face of our enemies, we are one people with one mission,» said parliamentary opposition leader and head of the Yesh Atid party Yair Lapid.

In addition, Netanyahu has managed to regain the support of European politicians who have criticized him in recent weeks for worsening the humanitarian situation in the Gaza Strip.

«France reaffirms Israel's right to self-defense and to ensure its security,» French President Emmanuel Macron, who even recently threatened to go after Israeli authorities for recognizing the independence of the State of Palestine, wrote on his social media X page.

The Israeli prime minister was expectedly supported by U.S. President Donald Trump, who called the Israeli strikes outstanding and threatened Iranian authorities that such attacks would continue unless they agreed to a nuclear deal with Washington.

A sixth round of talks between Tehran and Washington is scheduled for June 15 in Oman. If it does take place, the Islamic republic's position will obviously be more vulnerable.

In any case, the Iranian authorities, even if they refuse to negotiate, will sooner or later have to make concessions to Washington. The country's severe economic crisis, inflation at over 40%, and ongoing protests against rising fuel prices have forced Iran's leadership in recent months to negotiate with one of its worst enemies, the United States.

But Tehran's intransigent stance on reducing uranium enrichment dampened Trump's optimism, who ultimately, judging from his reaction to the op-ed on Truth Social, was aware of Israel's planned operation. In an interview with Reuters, the U.S. president stated that he and his team knew of Israel's plan to attack Iran and that he warned Tehran to give it a chance to strike a deal on its nuclear program. 

Previous slaps in the face to Iran - whether it was the assassination of prominent general Qassem Suleimani in a Baghdad suburb in January 2020 on Trump's orders - Iran even issued an arrest warrant for the American president afterward - or the Israeli attack on the Iranian consulate general in Damascus in April 2024 - did not result in a lightning-fast response from Tehran.

Each time, the authorities of the Islamic republic calibrated the response and made it so that the situation would not escalate to a full-scale conflict.

Obviously, even now the Iranian leadership will do everything to avoid igniting the fire of a new war. The most important thing for Tehran now is to save face and show that it does not leave such actions unanswered. The massive attacks by drones and ballistic missiles aimed at Israel on Friday are designed to show that.

In any case, the image of the Islamic republic, which has lost key military leaders, has already been undermined. No doubt Iran's allies in the Middle East, who watched its defeats in Syria and Lebanon last year, have once again seen how Tehran is unable to ensure the security of even its own leaders.

On the other hand, civilian casualties could strengthen the position of the Iranian authorities, who have lost support among the population of the Islamic republic;

In addition, the assassination of Ali Shamkhani, an adviser to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and one of the chief negotiators on Iran's nuclear program, could lead to a hardening of the Islamic republic's negotiating position, if not a complete breakdown.

While most key Middle Eastern countries, such as Saudi Arabia, have condemned Israel's attack and called for restraint on the sides, this will not prevent new waves of escalation.

In the long term, tensions in the Middle East will continue as long as the war in the Gaza Strip, ruled by Hamas, continues. And it is sponsored by Iran. This is the defining story today, including in the conflict between Iran and Israel.