"Unique in its category": Mizuho saw 44% upside potential for Palantir stock

Mizuho analyst Gregg Moskowitz upgraded shares of military and civilian AI developer Palantir from neutral to a buy recommendation, Barron's writes. He also set the target price at $195, which implies a 44% upside potential relative to the last close on February 18.

Moskowitz called Palantir "unique in its category"-thanks to revenue growth rates and margin expansion "unparalleled in the software industry."

Palantir's papers at the trades on February 18 were more than 5% more expensive at the moment, but then reduced the growth and closed in the plus by 1.8%. Since the beginning of the year, the company's quotes are down 24%, while the Nasdaq Composite index has lost about 2% over the same period. Now that the revaluation has occurred, the risk/reward ratio of the stock looks more attractive, the analyst said. For months, he has expressed concerns that Palantir shares could face a marked correction in multiples at some point, Moskowitz recalled.

The decline in quotations is not only due to the compression of multiples after an impressive rally in 2025, Barron's notes. Palantir was also under pressure from a sell-off in the software sector and a general deterioration in sentiment around AI, the publication writes.

Despite concerns around AI, which is the backbone of Palantir's business, Moskowitz remains optimistic. "While Palantir is certainly not immune to macroeconomic risks, the rapid expansion into the manufacturing circuits shows that many customers are getting a clear return on investment. This refutes the view that growth is driven by short-term hype around AI," he wrote.

The analyst's positive assessment is based on solid growth in the commercial segment of Palantir's U.S. business, which now accounts for 36% of the company's total revenue versus 26% a year earlier. Management forecasts expansion of this area by at least 115% in 2026, "and we believe the probability of exceeding the forecast is high," Moskowitz added.

Meanwhile, public sector solutions also continue to gain momentum both in the U.S. and abroad, the analyst noted. As of the fourth quarter, revenue from government contracts in the U.S. accounted for 41% of Palantir's total revenue. The company is also seeing particularly strong growth in the U.K., "despite overall cautious spending in Europe," Moskowitz wrote.

On February 10 analysts of Daiwa Securities raised their recommendation on shares of Palantir from neutral to buy, but reduced the target price from $200 to $180. This target implies potential growth of securities by one third relative to the last closing.

In the last month, the number of "bulls" regarding Palantir has increased significantly: from 10 to 17, MarketWatch shows . 11 analysts recommend to keep the company's shares in the portfolio, and two analysts recommend to sell them.

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