Despite the flood of news about duties, investors on Wall Street have already gotten comfortable with the so-called TACO strategy - betting that U.S. President Donald Trump will threaten duties but eventually back down and the stock markets will rebound from the decline, writes Barron's. Ahead is the new reporting season, which will test the S&P 500's rally of the past three months.

Half of the 38 S&P 500 companies that will report this week are from the financial sector. Среди них девять из десяти крупнейших банков США. Of the large non-financial companies, Johnson & Johnson and Netflix will release quarterly reports on Wall Street. In Asia, TSMC will report last quarter's earnings, while in Europe, ASML and Burberry. 

The main macroeconomic event of the week is the publication of fresh US inflation data, which will help assess the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in the near term. In addition, investors will be waiting for data on inflation in the eurozone, an assessment of China's economic growth in the last quarter, as well as news about possible U.S. agreements with trade partners on duties, which Trump promised to introduce on August 1, wrote The Wall Street Journal.

On Monday, July 14, China's General Administration of Customs said the country's exports accelerated to 5.8% year-on-year in June from 4.8% in May and beat the consensus forecast of 5%. The acceleration came amid a temporary easing of tariff pressure, with Washington and Beijing agreeing on a framework trade deal on June 27 - more than a month before the August deadline. In the first half of the year, China increased exports to Japan (up 4.8%), the UK (8%), ASEAN (13%) and the EU (6.6%), while shipments to the US fell 10.9%, reports Trading Economics.

On Tuesday, July 15, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June. Консенсус-прогноз Barron's: инфляция в 2,6% в годовом выражении (на 0,2 процентных пункта выше, чем в мае). Core inflation (Core CPI) excluding food and energy prices - expected at 2.9% vs. 2.8% in May.

China's National Bureau of Statistics will report the size of China's GDP for the second quarter. The market is predicting that growth in the world's second-largest economy will be quite strong thanks to strong exports, the WSJ notes. Its consensus forecast predicts a 5.2% increase in the country's GDP in April-June 2025, up from 5.4% in the first quarter.

BlackRock, Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, Rio Tinto and Wells Fargo will present financial statements.

On Wednesday, July 16, the BLS will release the U.S. producer price index (PPI) for June. Consensus forecast Barron's: PPI up 2.5% year-over-year, Core PPI up 2.7%, up from 2.6% and 3% in May.

Alcoa, ASML, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Johnson & Johnson, Morgan Stanley and United Airlines will disclose quarterly financial results.

The eurozone will release its final inflation estimate for June on Thursday, July 17. The final estimate showed that annual inflation was in line with the European Central Bank's 2% target. 

GE Aerospace, Netflix, Novartis, PepsiCo, Snap-On, TSMC and U.S. Bancorp will report quarterly earnings.

On Friday, July 18, the University of Michigan will release the U.S. consumer sentiment index for July. The consensus forecast is 61.5 points, up slightly from June's reading. U.S. consumers' expectations for inflation a year ahead were 5 percent in June, up from 6.6 percent in May, a four-decade high, reports Barron's.

3M, American Express, Burberry and Charles Schwab will report results  of last quarter's operations.

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor

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