In the last full trading week of June, the S&P 500 index reached an all-time high for the first time since February - optimism around a possible Fed rate cut and reduced concerns about duties contributed to the growth of quotations. Wall Street's focus in the first week of July will be the U.S. employment report for June. In addition, there will be fresh data on the number of open jobs, wage dynamics, as well as business activity in industry and services in the world's largest economy, write Yahoo Finance.

Market participants will be waiting for news about additional postponement of duties ahead of the July 9 deadline set by US President Donald Trump's administration on this issue. U.S. exchanges will close trading at 13:00 on July 3 and will be closed on July 4 due to the U.S. Independence Day holiday.

Of the companies whose quarterly earnings disclosures are worth watching this week, Barron's and Yahoo Finance have selected Constellation Brands. The focus for investors in the London market will be Marks & Spencer's AGM - market participants are awaiting data on how the company is coping with the aftermath of the recent cyberattack, передает Yahoo Finance.

On Monday, June 30, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will release the Chicago Business Activity Index for June. The consensus forecast is for a reading of 42.7 points, about two points above the May level.

China's National Bureau of Statistics released June business activity indices (PMI) in industry and services. The industrial PMI rose to 49.7 points in June from 49.5 in May, matching analysts' forecasts. The non-manufacturing PMI rose to 50.5 points, above both market expectations and May's 50.3. This is the maximum since March. Business activity in China was supported by the trade truce with the US and Beijing's ongoing measures to stimulate domestic demand and contain deflationary pressures, reports Trading Economics.

On Tuesday, July 1, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release data on the nation's job openings and labor turnover rate (JOLTS). The consensus estimate is that at the end of the last working day in May, the number of open job openings totaled 7.3 million - nearly 100,000 fewer than in April. 

ISM will publish PMI in the U.S. manufacturing sector for June. The forecasted value is 48.8 points, which is approximately the same as in May.

The eurozone will release preliminary June inflation data. Both overall and core inflation - excluding food and energy prices - in the region are expected to fall 0.1% by May, and in annualized terms to 1.8% and 2.2%, respectively, reported The Wall Street Journal, citing Investec.

Constellation Brands will present financial statements for the first quarter of fiscal 2026. The report will reveal how the Corona beer maker is coping with duties. British retailer Marks & Spencer will hold its annual shareholders' meeting.

On Wednesday, July 2, ADP will release the national U.S. private sector employment report for June. The consensus forecast calls for an 88k increase in jobs, following a 37k increase in May, the smallest monthly gain since May 2023.

On Thursday, July 3, ISM will release the U.S. Services Business Activity Index for June. The forecasted value is 50.5 points, slightly above the May level.

BLS will release the June U.S. jobs report. Economists on average expect non-farm job gains of 113,000 after 139,000 in May. The consensus forecast is for unemployment to rise to 4.3% from 4.2%. While markets are bracing for a Fed rate cut in September, weak employment data could reinforce expectations of easing as early as July, stresses Barron's.

On Friday, July 4, U.S. stock exchanges will be closed in observance of U.S. Independence Day.

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor

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