'Waiting for capitulation': Standard Chartered worsens bitcoin forecast by one and a half times

Standard Chartered, one of the most active global banks in digital assets, has downgraded its bitcoin value forecast for the second time in less than a quarter. The bank warned that in the coming months the largest cryptocurrency could trade at half the price expected by the end of 2026.

"We expect further price capitulation over the next few months," Jeffrey Kendrick, head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered, wrote to clients, pointing to outflows from exchange-traded funds and deteriorating macroeconomic conditions. A capitulation is when investors lose faith in the growth of an asset and start selling aggressively to salvage what capital remains. An analyst at Standard Chartered lowered his bitcoin value forecast for the end of 2026 from $150,000 to $100,000, while back in December the bank predicted a price of $300,000. He also warned that the cryptocurrency could fall to $50,000 before prices stabilize, Bloomberg reports.

Bitcoin has now lost more than 45% of its value compared to its October peak. The coming "cryptozyme" negatively affects both the income of market participants and their quotes. On February 12, Coinbase, the largest crypto exchange in the United States, reported a net loss of $667 million for the fourth quarter, while its revenue fell more than forecasts - by 20% to $1.8 billion. Coinbase shares, which collapsed by 7.9% at the end of the main session in New York, rose by 0.9% on the postmarket after the publication of the report.

A day earlier, shares of Robinhood, a crypto trading platform, fell nearly 8% after the release of its financial results. Last quarter, Robinhood recorded a 34% drop in profits, while revenue growth fell short of Wall Street's expectations. The weak link was digital asset trading, with revenues well below consensus.

Analysts Monness, Crespi, Hardt & Co. Feb. 12, downgraded their recommendation on Coinbase shares from "buy" (Buy) to "sell" (Sell) and lowered their target price from $375 to $120 per security, down 14.9% from the current price. Investmentbase called hopes for a sustained market recovery "silly" and "superficial," pointing out that "bear" cycles - periods of prolonged decline - in cryptocurrencies last a long time, Bloomberg writes.

According to FactSet, Wall Street remains generally optimistic about Coinbase and Robinhood: the consensus on both issuers is "above market" (Overweight, equivalent to a buy recommendation). The average target prices calculated by the service suggest the potential for Coinbase shares to more than double, and Robinhood securities to rise by 88% from current levels.

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor