Walmart is no longer first in revenue, and the forecast was weak. What's up with the stock?

Walmart has lost its status as the world's largest company in terms of revenue, CNBC has pointed out. The sales of the retailer, which is considered a barometer of the state of the U.S. economy, has lost ground to Amazon's 2025 results, according to a report published on February 19. Walmart also offered a weaker-than-expected outlook for the current fiscal year.

The market reacted ambiguously to all this: the shares fell in price immediately after the release on the postmarket, at the opening of trading they recovered the fall and went into the plus, then turned around several times and at the time of publication of this text were trading 0.6% cheaper than the previous close.

Walmart's revenue in 2025 increased by 4.7% to $713.2 billion, while Amazon previously reported sales of $716.9 billion, recalls CNBC. Thus, Walmart ceded the leadership position, which it held for 13 years, writes CNN.

The revenue figure of both companies includes not only retail business: Amazon gets a significant part of its revenues from cloud computing, Walmart is actively developing its advertising business, points out CNBC. At the same time, it is Walmart's results that are considered symptomatic of the state of the U.S. economy - because of its giant chain of stores and online shopping, which are used by more than 60% of Americans, notes Bloomberg.

The company's figures for the fourth quarter exceeded Wall Street's expectations. Revenue increased by 5.6% to $190.7 billion against the market's forecast of $190.5 billion, Barron's said. Earnings per share reached 74 cents, while analysts quoted by CNBC expected 73 cents.

U.S. online sales rose 27% and global sales rose 24% in the period, marking the 15th consecutive quarter of double-digit e-commerce growth. It already brings Walmart about 23% of U.S. sales, a record for the company, CNBC noted.

At the same time, the forecast for the current fiscal year, which began on February 1, was worse than expected. Walmart believes that adjusted earnings will be $2.75-2.85 per share, with analysts' forecasts at $2.96-2.97. The retailer estimates revenue growth at 3.5-4.5%, while Wall Street was hoping for 5%, Barron's reports.

Chief Financial Officer John David Rainey admitted that it prefers to remain cautious amid uncertainty in trade policy and employment dynamics. However, he is confident that inflation caused by US duties has peaked or is close to it, and the price situation has normalized, Bloomberg quoted him as saying.

Walmart also announced a new $30 billion share repurchase program and raised its annual dividend for the 53rd straight time, to 99 cents per share.

- According to Jay Woods, chief market strategist at Freedom Capital Markets, Walmart's securities were trading at "extremely high levels" before the report, so further growth required the company to significantly exceed expectations. With inflated multiples, even a moderately conservative forecast was a reason to take profits, the analyst explained the nervous reaction immediately after the release.

- Evercore analyst Greg Melich reminded that Walmart management tends to take a conservative approach when issuing initial forecasts for the year, Reuters reports.

- D.A. Davidson analyst Michael Baker, quoted by CNBC, agrees: "The forecast (...) came in below market expectations, but we're not too concerned about that because we assume Walmart wants to set a bar that will then be easy to beat." The analyst advised using "any weakness on the back of this forecast to buy."

- According to Wall Street investment banks, Walmart shares still have significant upside potential as the company strengthens its presence in retail, unwinding the "flywheel" between different lines of business, as Morgan Stanley's Simeon Gutman put it. "Our positive view of Walmart is based on the fact that it is growing revenue faster than the market and its own current pace. (...) The big ones are getting even bigger through scale and technology," the analyst wrote.

- Deutsche Bank 's Christine Katay believes the company is completing the digital capability base phase, including artificial intelligence, and moving into the acceleration phase.

This is the first report since new CEO John Furner took over the company. He took over on February 1, and on February 3, Walmart's market capitalization surpassed $1 trillion, making it the first retailer to reach that mark.

Over the past year, the company's capitalization has increased by 30%. Since the beginning of 2026, the shares have risen by about 13%, outperforming the S&P 500 index.

Furner is now tasked with maintaining the momentum. Alongside this, Walmart has made other personnel changes, including the appointment of former Amazon employee David Guggina as president and CEO of Walmart US - as part of a focus on technology and investment in AI.

Walmart has partnered with OpenAI to allow customers to shop via ChatGPT, and is using AI to improve delivery speeds, recommendation systems and the overall customer experience, Reuters writes. The efforts put the company, which previously operated primarily offline, in a "unique position to capture market share" from rivals such as Amazon and Costco, according to Roth.

"It's a very different retailer than it was a decade ago. It operates in a new way and with a different approach," Reuters quoted UBS analyst Michael Lasser as saying.

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor