Why biotech Janux, held by Blackrock and Steve Cohen, has consensus upside of 300%

Janux Therapeutics – a small-cap developer of prostate cancer therapies – has lost more than 65% of its market value over the past year. The steepest decline followed the release of data on one of the key candidates in the company’s pipeline. Despite this, Janux shares remain in the portfolios of BlackRock and investor Steve Cohen, according to its Form 13F filing as of the end of September. Wall Street analysts, for their part, continue to recommend buying the stock, expecting it could rise more than 300%.

Janux (JANX), a biotech with a market capitalization of about $840 million, was founded in 2017 by current President and CEO David Campbell, who has a doctorate in organic chemistry. Campbell has extensive experience in drug discovery and development at biotech companies, including Sitari (celiac disease; partnered with GSK), Afraxis (oncology; partnered with Genentech), and RQx (antibacterial therapies; partnered with Genentech).

Under Campbell’s leadership, Janux is developing a range of immunotherapy drugs. Their key feature is the ability to direct immune cells to cancer tumors and activate them only in affected tissues, reducing the risk of damage to healthy cells.

In June 2021, Janux raised $193.8 million in a U.S. IPO, priced at the upper end of the marketed range. According to its Form 13F, as of September 30, BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, held 3.7 million Janux shares valued at about $51.5 million. Steve Cohen’s Point72 held 1.7 million shares worth roughly $23.6 million.

Janux works with partners as well on other projects. In December 2020, the company entered into a scientific collaboration and exclusive licensing agreement with Merck covering two drug candidates. Details on indications and study design were not disclosed. In August 2025, Janux reported that the first patient had received a dose of one of the therapies, marking the start of clinical trials.

In late January this year, Janux announced a collaboration agreement with Bristol Myers Squibb to develop a therapy for solid tumors. The companies did not disclose the specific candidate or targeted indications. Under the deal, Janux may receive up to $50 million in upfront payments and approximately $800 million in milestone payments, as well as royalties on future sales.

One of the most advanced candidates, JANX007, targets prostate-specific membrane antigen (PSMA), a protein highly expressed in prostate cancer tumors. PSMA levels are highly elevated in prostate cancer, which is the most common type of cancer in men and the second-most common type of cancer in the U.S. The therapy is being developed primarily for patients whose disease no longer responds to standard hormone treatment.

Another candidate, JANX008, is being developed for advanced solid tumors, including colorectal, lung, pancreatic, and breast cancers. According to a February 2024 study, JANX008 demonstrated early signs of antitumor activity across several tumor types with a favorable tolerability profile.

Clinical trials of JANX007 began in late 2022. Early clinical (phase Ia) results released in December 2024 showed a strong and sustained effect: 63% of patients achieved a maximum PSA reduction of 90% in advanced metastatic prostate cancer, along with good tolerability. These results enabled dose selection and expansion into phase Ib, with a focus on earlier treatment lines. Wedbush analyst Robert Driscoll described the news as “unprecedented.”

A year later, updated data from the ongoing phase I study disappointed the market. On December 2, the day after publication, Janux shares fell 50%. While the update contained some positive elements, investor concerns appeared justified, Barron’s cited Stifel analyst Stephan Willey as saying. He cut his target price by 17% to $38 per share but maintained a “buy” rating, noting that Janux had provided only a limited amount of new patient data over the last 12 months.

H.C. Wainwright analyst Swayampakula Ramakanth lowered his target price from $70 to $45 per share while maintaining a “buy” rating. He described the results as “mixed” and said the drug would likely remain a show-me story until a more mature dataset emerges. 

Cantor analyst Josh Schimmer was more optimistic. In a December 1 note (seen by Oninvest), he said the results were comparable to Novartis’ Pluvicto, particularly in terms of progression-free survival. They thus marked a good start given the success of Pluvicto, Schimmer wrote.

Pluvicto is already approved for metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer prior to chemotherapy. The therapy was a key driver of Novartis’ growth in the third quarter, with sales reaching $564 million, up 45% year over year.

Janux shares have declined roughly 70% over the last 12 months. Analysts at William Blair noted in a December 26 report (seen by Oninvest) that investor focus remains on JANX007. Though the latest clinical update disappointed the market, the firm believes the magnitude of the selloff represented an overreaction and sees potential for significant upside if positive data emerge in 2026.

Clear Street analysts led by Kaveri Pohlman wrote in a January 22 note (also seen by Oninvest) that near-term performance will be driven primarily by the JANX007 program and its ability to demonstrate sustained clinical progress. They also warned that JANX008 could face tolerability challenges as more data accumulate: if JANX008 shows negative results and is not quickly replaced by another candidate, the analysts said their valuation of the company will be much reduced.

Janux currently has 18 “buy” ratings from 20 Wall Street analysts. The average target price stands at $60.83 per share, implying potential upside of about 340% from the close on Tuesday, February 3. The most upbeat target is $150 per share.

This material does not constitute individualized investment advice.