The average target price of 4681.T is 1643 and suggests 0% upside potential. Usually, this means a HOLD recommendation among investment firms. This neutral recommendation suggests no significant price movement, up or down, in the next 12 months. The most optimistic analyst has a target price of 1950.0. This translates into 19% upside potential in the best case. On the other hand, the most pessimistic analyst has a target price of 1600.0. This is equivalent to 2% downside potential in the worst case. 

Resorttrust, Inc. engages in the membership sale and administration; and operation of hotels and restaurants, and golf clubs. It is also involved in the medical and other businesses. The company's resort and city hotels portfolio includes 50 locations in Japan and 1 location in Hawaii. It also operates 13 golf courses. The company was founded in 1973 and is headquartered in Nagoya, Japan.

Japan

Resorttrust, Inc.

Consumer Cyclical

The company pays dividends on rare occasions. There have only been a few years with dividend payments in the past ten years. Dividend per share (DPS) has grown yearly, but the dynamics are unclear. In the past 12 months, the dividend yield has been moderate and on par with its peers. 

4681.T reported revenue of JPY 249 333mn in the last 12 months, down 5% from FY24. At the same time, the dynamics of cash flow, as measured by free cash flow (FCF), were drastically different. EPS fell 32% from FY24 to JPY 106.60. Market expects EPS to reach JPY 88.01 in FY25.

Over the last six months, the stock performance has varied, with an increase following a drop. The stock's price trend wasn't definitive when matched against its global counterparts from the same sector and industry (as depicted above). Within the past six months, its performance has trailed this peer group's by 40ppts and its growth accelerated by 10ppts in the past month. This is equally valid for peers from the same country and industry. Given the stock's valuation versus its peers, its total price movement is slightly unfavourable.

The company has reported average EBITDA margins compared to its global peers in recent years. EBITDA margin amounted to 14.8% in the last 12 months, a decline from 16.7% in FY24. 

Historically, 4681.T has reported good net margins compared to its global peers. Specifically, in the last 12 months, this metric equalled 8.1%, down from 9.3% in FY24. 

Another important profitability metric, return on assets (RoA), amounted to 4.1% in the last 12 months, a decrease from 5.2% in FY24. The market analysts predict that RoA will be 6.3% in FY25, again weaker than its peers. 

Resorttrust, Inc. reported a return on equity (RoE) of 14.2% in the last 12 months, down from 18.6% in FY24. The market consensus projects an RoE of 21.5% in FY25, this time above its peers. 

In the last 12 months, the return on capital employed (RoCE) declined to 6.3%, below the peers. The consensus estimate for FY25 for RoCE is 13.6%, again behind the peers. 

The ratio of return on invested capital (RoIC) to the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) has been 2.9 in the past several years. This ratio implies a strong shareholder value creation. 

The institutional, legal, and compliance risks associated with the company's country are minimal. In combination with stringent business standards, shareholder rights are very highly protected.

4681.T boasts high trading liquidity. The average private investor can sell his common position in the stock almost immediately. Liquidity is usually very stable and remains mildly favourable on the days with the lowest activity. The trading volume mostly stays the same even under highly turbulent market conditions. 

No other major risks have been identified.

The risk of default is minimal. We note strong debt servicing capacity, adequate interest coverage, solid cash flow generation, and an favourable capital structure, among the positive credit factors. Among the negative credit factors, we point to weak positions in its industry.

In highly turbulent market conditions, 4681.T is highly volatile. In other words, the stock will fall substantially more than the index in times of extreme market volatility or shocking company news. Standalone, the worst-day losses (less than 1% of the time) will likely be significant. 

In normal market circumstances, 4681.T is not overly volatile. Put differently, without outstanding market volatility or shocking company news, the stock's price will remain relatively stable. The stock's losses on its worst days (less than 1-5% of the time) will range from very low to mild. 

Considering past and projected metrics, the stock is neither 'expensive' nor 'cheap' compared to its peers. In particular, the stock is reasonably priced on P/E, of fair value on EV/EBITD. 

Resorttrust, Inc.

¥ 1652.5

4

Resorttrust, Inc.

¥ 1652.5

4

Risk factor

Profitability factor

Risk / Profitability

Risk factor

Profitability factor

¥ 1652.5

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