The average target price of HNGE is 47 and suggests 3% downside potential. Usually, this means a SELL recommendation among investment firms, or a recommendation to decrease one's position in this instrument in the next 12 months. The most optimistic analyst has a target price of 52.0. This translates into 8% upside potential in the best case. On the other hand, the most pessimistic analyst has a target price of 42.0. This is equivalent to 12% downside potential in the worst case. 

Hinge Health, Inc. develops health care software for joint and muscle health. The company designs its platform to address a musculoskeletal care, acute injury, chronic pain, and post-surgical rehabilitation. It also provides various administrative and operations support services. The company was founded in 2012 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.

Hinge Health, Inc.

Healthcare

The company does not pay dividends at all, or it pays them sporadically. There have only been a few years with dividend payments in the past ten years. 

The stock has been growing steadily in the past six months, adding 0% in total. There is no clear price trend compared to its global peers from the same sector and industry (as shown above). The stock has outperformed this peer group by 2ppts over past six months and grown 17ppts faster in the past month. This is largely true for peers from the same country and sector. With respect to the stock's valuation against its peers, its overall price performance is neutral.

The company has reported very poor EBITDA margins compared to its global peers in recent years. EBITDA margin amounted to 6.9% in the last 12 months, up from -6.6% in FY23. 

Historically, HNGE has reported very poor net margins compared to its global peers. Specifically, in the last 12 months, this metric equalled 7.3%, a growth from -3.1% in FY23. 

Hinge Health, Inc. reported a return on equity (RoE) of 7.3% in the last 12 months, up from -2.8% in FY23. 

Another important profitability metric, return on assets (RoA), amounted to 4.7% in the last 12 months, an increase from -1.9% in FY23. 

In the last 12 months, the return on capital employed (RoCE) grew to 7.1%, below the peers. 

The ratio of return on invested capital (RoIC) to the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) has been -0.8 in the past several years. This ratio implies a fragile shareholder value creation. 

The institutional, legal, and compliance risks associated with the company's country are minimal. In combination with stringent business standards, shareholder rights are very highly protected.

HNGE has average trading liquidity. The average private investor can sell his common position in the stock immediately. Liquidity is usually stable and remains extremely favourable on the days with the lowest activity. However, please consider that under highly turbulent market conditions, the trading volume tends to decrease significantly. 

No other major risks have been identified.

The risk of default is moderate. We note resilient historical revenue growth, low margin volatility, and an favourable capital structure, among the positive credit factors. Among the negative credit factors, we point to bleak profitability, negligible return on capital, and poor working capital management.

In highly turbulent market conditions, HNGE is volatile. In other words, the stock will fall much more than the index in times of extreme market volatility or shocking company news. Standalone, the worst-day losses (less than 1% of the time) will likely be large. 

In normal market circumstances, HNGE is exceptionally volatile. Put differently, without outstanding market volatility or shocking company news, the stock's price will change quite unpredictably. The stock's losses on its worst days (less than 1-5% of the time) will range from significant to immense. 

Based on key historical and expected multiples, the stock is greatly overvalued relative to its peers. Specifically, the stock is 'expensive' on P/E, overvalued on EV/EBITD. 

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Hinge Health, Inc.

$ 47.64

2

Hinge Health, Inc.

$ 47.64

2

Risk factor

Profitability factor

Risk / Profitability

Risk factor

Profitability factor

$ 47.64

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