PT Graha Andrasentra Propertindo Tbk. engages in the development and management of amusement/recreation parks. The company operates through four divisions: Hotel and Condotel, Real Estate, Recreation Park, and Others. It also manages the Jungle Waterpark, Jungleland Adventure Theme Park, and Jungle Festival. In addition, the company is involved in the development and sale of houses and apartments; management of the Bogor Nirwana Residence area; and management of Aston Bogor Hotel and Resort. PT Graha Andrasentra Propertindo Tbk. was founded in 1988 and is based in Bogor, Indonesia.

Indonesia

PT Graha Andrasentra Propertindo Tbk.

Consumer Cyclical

The company does not pay dividends at all, or it pays them sporadically. There have only been a few years with dividend payments in the past ten years. 

JGLE.JK reported revenue of IDR 165 623mn in the last 12 months, up 7% from FY23. At the same time, the dynamics of cash flow, as measured by free cash flow (FCF), were drastically different. EPS fell 40% from FY23 to IDR -1.18.

Over the past six months, the stock has consistently climbed, resulting in 50% total increase. When compared to its international counterparts in the same sector and industry (as shown above), the stock has exceeded their performances, leading by 53ppts in total. This is equally valid for peers from the same country and industry. Given the stock's valuation versus its peers, its total price movement is mildly favourable.

The company has reported very poor EBITDA margins compared to its global peers in recent years. EBITDA margin amounted to 3.1% in the last 12 months, a decline from 12.1% in FY23. 

Historically, JGLE.JK has reported very poor net margins compared to its global peers. Specifically, in the last 12 months, this metric equalled -16.1%, a growth from -28.5% in FY23. 

In the last 12 months, the return on capital employed (RoCE) grew to -2.0%, below the peers. 

Another important profitability metric, return on assets (RoA), amounted to -1.7% in the last 12 months, an increase from -2.6% in FY23. 

PT Graha Andrasentra Propertindo Tbk. reported a return on equity (RoE) of -2.4% in the last 12 months, up from -3.8% in FY23. 

The ratio of return on invested capital (RoIC) to the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) has been -1.4 in the past several years. This ratio implies a fragile shareholder value creation. 

The institutional, legal, and compliance risks associated with the company's country are close to minimal. In combination with rigorous business standards, shareholder rights are well protected.

JGLE.JK has very poor trading liquidity. It will take considerable time for the average private investor to sell a common position under normal market conditions. Liquidity is unstable and becomes extremely unfavourable on the days with the lowest activity. The trading volume mostly stays the same even under highly turbulent market conditions. Another factor to consider is the substantial number of days with zero trading volumes, i.e., without any ability to sell a position. The stock has a tiny market capitalisation, which usually makes its trading liquidity erratic and unpredictable. 

No other major risks have been identified.

The risk of default is moderate. We note resilient historical revenue growth, low margin volatility, and an favourable capital structure, among the positive credit factors. Among the negative credit factors, we point to weak positions in its industry, bleak profitability, negligible return on capital, weak debt servicing capacity, inadequate interest coverage, and poor cash flow generation.

In highly turbulent market conditions, JGLE.JK is exceptionally volatile. In other words, the stock will be among the worst-performers in times of extreme market volatility or shocking company news. Standalone, the worst-day losses (less than 1% of the time) will likely be critical. 

In normal market circumstances, JGLE.JK is exceptionally volatile. Put differently, without outstanding market volatility or shocking company news, the stock's price will change quite unpredictably. The stock's losses on its worst days (less than 1-5% of the time) will range from critical to immense. 

Based on key historical and expected multiples, the stock is overvalued relative to its peers. Specifically, the stock is overvalued on EV/EBITDA. 

PT Graha Andrasentra Propertindo Tbk.

IDR 9

2

PT Graha Andrasentra Propertindo Tbk.

IDR 9

2

Risk factor

Profitability factor

Risk / Profitability

Risk factor

Profitability factor

IDR 9

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