The average target price of OUST is 14 and suggests 16% upside potential. Usually, this means a BUY recommendation among investment firms, or a recommendation to increase one's position in this instrument in the next 12 months. The most optimistic analyst has a target price of 17.0. This translates into 42% upside potential in the best case. On the other hand, the most pessimistic analyst has a target price of 11.0. This is equivalent to 8% downside potential in the worst case. 

Ouster, Inc. designs and manufactures high-resolution digital lidar sensors and enabling software that offers 3D vision to machinery, vehicles, robots, and fixed infrastructure assets. Its product portfolio includes OS, a scanning sensor and DF, a true solid-state flash sensor. The company is based in San Francisco, California.

Ouster, Inc.

Industrials

The company does not pay dividends at all, or it pays them sporadically. There have only been a few years with dividend payments in the past ten years. 

OUST reported revenue of USD 118mn in the last 12 months, up 6% from FY24. At the same time, the dynamics of cash flow, as measured by free cash flow (FCF), were drastically different. EPS fell 6% from FY24 to USD -1.97. Market expects EPS to reach USD -1.27 in FY25.

Over the past six months, the stock has consistently climbed, resulting in 13% total increase. When compared to its international counterparts in the same sector and industry (as shown above), the stock has exceeded their performances, leading by 14ppts in total. This is equally valid for peers from the same country and industry. Given the stock's valuation versus its peers, its total price movement is mildly favourable.

The company has reported very poor EBITDA margins compared to its global peers in recent years. EBITDA margin amounted to -72.0% in the last 12 months, up from -411.4% in FY23. 

Historically, OUST has reported very poor net margins compared to its global peers. Specifically, in the last 12 months, this metric equalled -80.8%, a growth from -449.2% in FY23. 

In the last 12 months, the return on capital employed (RoCE) grew to -44.0%, below the peers. The consensus estimate for FY24 for RoCE is -59.1%, again behind the peers. 

Another important profitability metric, return on assets (RoA), amounted to -31.8% in the last 12 months, an increase from -127.5% in FY23. The market analysts predict that RoA will be -45.7% in FY24, again weaker than its peers. 

Ouster, Inc. reported a return on equity (RoE) of -54.8% in the last 12 months, up from -213.0% in FY23. The market consensus projects an RoE of -84.2% in FY24, again behind its peers. 

The ratio of return on invested capital (RoIC) to the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) has been -5.7 in the past several years. This ratio implies a fragile shareholder value creation. 

The institutional, legal, and compliance risks associated with the company's country are minimal. In combination with stringent business standards, shareholder rights are very highly protected.

OUST has above average trading liquidity. The average private investor can sell his common position in the stock almost immediately. Liquidity is usually quite stable and remains favourable on the days with the lowest activity. The trading volume mostly stays the same even under highly turbulent market conditions. The stock has a small market capitalisation, which usually makes its trading liquidity erratic and unpredictable. 

No other major risks have been identified.

The risk of default is high. Among the negative credit factors, we point to bleak profitability, negligible return on capital, inadequate interest coverage, and an unfavourable capital structure. We note resilient historical revenue growth and low margin volatility, among the positive credit factors. 

In highly turbulent market conditions, OUST is exceptionally volatile. In other words, the stock will be among the worst-performers in times of extreme market volatility or shocking company news. Standalone, the worst-day losses (less than 1% of the time) will likely be critical. 

In normal market circumstances, OUST is exceptionally volatile. Put differently, without outstanding market volatility or shocking company news, the stock's price will change quite unpredictably. The stock's losses on its worst days (less than 1-5% of the time) will range from critical to immense. 

Considering past and projected metrics, the stock is distinctly 'expensive' compared to its peers. 

Ouster, Inc.

$ 10.83

2

Ouster, Inc.

$ 10.83

2

Risk factor

Profitability factor

Risk / Profitability

Risk factor

Profitability factor

$ 10.83

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