The average target price of PROT.OL is 382 and suggests 15% downside potential. Usually, this means a SELL recommendation among investment firms, or a recommendation to decrease one's position in this instrument in the next 12 months. The most optimistic analyst has a target price of 400.0. This is lower than the current market price, meaning that even the most optimistic analyst does not see upside potential. On the other hand, the most pessimistic analyst has a target price of 380.0. This is equivalent to 16% downside potential in the worst case. 

Protector Forsikring ASA, a general insurance company, provides various insurance products to the commercial and public sectors, and the affinity insurance markets in Norway, Denmark, Sweden, the United Kingdom, and Finland. It operates in two segments, Commercial Lines of Business and Public Lines of Business. The company offers personal, motor, property, liability, and change of ownership insurance. It sells its products to non-marine industries through insurance brokers. The company was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Oslo, Norway.

Norway

Protector Forsikring ASA

Financial Services

The company pays dividends most of the time. It has paid dividends in almost every one of the past ten years. Dividend per share (DPS) has grown yearly, but the dynamics are somewhat mixed. In the past 12 months, the dividend yield has been moderate and on par with its peers. On average, the company pays dividends every four months. 

PROT.OL reported revenue of NOK 13 059mn in the last 12 months, up 6% from FY24. At the same time, the dynamics of cash flow, as measured by free cash flow (FCF), were drastically different. EPS grew 19% from FY24 to NOK 22.20. Market expects EPS to reach NOK 18.21 in FY25.

The stock's performance has been mixed in the past six months, with growth following a decline. There is no clear price trend compared to its global peers from the same sector and industry (as shown above). The stock has outperformed this peer group by 42ppts over past six months and grown 5ppts faster in the past month. This is largely true for peers from the same country and sector. With respect to the stock's valuation against its peers, its overall price performance is positive. Usually, this means that a fairly valued or slightly undervalued stock has become more 'expensive', indicating that the market, in general, may have gained short-term confidence in the stock.

The company has reported average EBITDA margins compared to its global peers in recent years. EBITDA margin amounted to 15.8% in the last 12 months, up from 11.8% in FY23. 

Historically, PROT.OL has reported strong net margins compared to its global peers. Specifically, in the last 12 months, this metric equalled 14.0%, down from 15.8% in FY23. 

In the last 12 months, the return on capital employed (RoCE) declined to 10.5%, above the peers. The consensus estimate for FY24 for RoCE is 19.0%, again ahead of the peers. 

Another important profitability metric, return on assets (RoA), amounted to 7.7% in the last 12 months, an increase from 7.6% in FY23. The market analysts predict that RoA will be 9.7% in FY24, again stronger than its peers. 

Protector Forsikring ASA reported a return on equity (RoE) of 35.4% in the last 12 months, down from 37.9% in FY23. The market consensus projects an RoE of 42.6% in FY24, again ahead of its peers. 

The ratio of return on invested capital (RoIC) to the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) has been 5.0 in the past several years. This ratio implies a excellent shareholder value creation. 

The institutional, legal, and compliance risks associated with the company's country are minimal. In combination with stringent business standards, shareholder rights are very highly protected.

PROT.OL has average trading liquidity. The average private investor can sell his common position in the stock almost immediately. Liquidity is usually stable and becomes extremely unfavourable on the days with the lowest activity. The trading volume mostly stays the same even under highly turbulent market conditions. 

No other major risks have been identified.

The risk of default is moderate. We note resilient historical revenue growth, solid return on capital, adequate interest coverage, and an favourable capital structure, among the positive credit factors. Among the negative credit factors, we point to weak positions in its industry.

In highly turbulent market conditions, PROT.OL is as volatile as an index. In other words, the stock will move with the index in times of extreme market volatility or shocking company news. Standalone, the worst-day losses (less than 1% of the time) will likely be limited. 

In normal market circumstances, PROT.OL is as volatile as an index. Put differently, without outstanding market volatility or shocking company news, the stock's price will move with the index. The stock's losses on its worst days (less than 1-5% of the time) will range from very low to negligible. 

Considering past and projected metrics, the stock is moderately 'expensive' compared to its peers. In particular, the stock is reasonably priced on P/E, 'expensive' on EV/EBITDA, trading at neutral levels on P/FCF. 

Protector Forsikring ASA

NOK 426.5

4

Protector Forsikring ASA

NOK 426.5

4

Risk factor

Profitability factor

Risk / Profitability

Risk factor

Profitability factor

NOK 426.5

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