The average target price of XOM is 116 and suggests 2% upside potential. Usually, this means a HOLD recommendation among investment firms. This neutral recommendation suggests no significant price movement, up or down, in the next 12 months. The most optimistic analyst has a target price of 142.0. This translates into 25% upside potential in the best case. On the other hand, the most pessimistic analyst has a target price of 95.0. This is equivalent to 17% downside potential in the worst case. 

Exxon Mobil Corporation explores for and produces crude oil and natural gas in the United States and internationally. It operates through Upstream, Downstream, and Chemical segments. The company is also involved in the manufacture, trade, transport, and sale of crude oil, natural gas, petroleum products, petrochemicals, and other specialty products; manufactures and sells petrochemicals, including olefins, polyolefins, aromatics, and various other petrochemicals; and captures and stores carbon, hydrogen, and biofuels. As of December 31, 2021, it had approximately 20,528 net operated wells with proved reserves. The company was founded in 1870 and is headquartered in Irving, Texas.

Exxon Mobil Corporation

Energy

The company has a track record of regular dividend payments. It has paid dividends in each of the past ten years. Dividend per share (DPS) has grown yearly, and there is an evident trend. In the past 12 months, the dividend yield has been good and slightly above its peers. On average, the company pays dividends quarterly, which may appeal to investors valuing a regular income stream. 

XOM reported revenue of USD 339 894mn in the last 12 months, up 0% from FY24. At the same time, the dynamics of cash flow, as measured by free cash flow (FCF), were drastically different. EPS fell 4% from FY24 to USD 7.54. Market expects EPS to reach USD 7.75 in FY25.

Over the past six months, the stock has consistently climbed, resulting in 8% total increase. The stock's price trend wasn't definitive when matched against its global counterparts from the same sector and industry (as depicted above). Over the past six months the stock has exceeded the performance of this peer group by 10ppts and its growth accelerated by 4ppts in the past month. There is a distinction between the stock's performance and that of its peers from the same country and industry. Over six months it exceeded the performance of this peer group by 14ppts and accelerated its growth by 5ppts in the recent month. Given the stock's valuation versus its peers, its total price movement is neither favourable nor unfavourable.

The company has reported average EBITDA margins compared to its global peers in recent years. EBITDA margin amounted to 21.6% in the last 12 months, a decline from 22.2% in FY23. 

Historically, XOM has reported good net margins compared to its global peers. Specifically, in the last 12 months, this metric equalled 9.8%, down from 10.8% in FY23. 

Another important profitability metric, return on assets (RoA), amounted to 8.0% in the last 12 months, a decrease from 9.7% in FY23. The market analysts predict that RoA will be 12.6% in FY24, again stronger than its peers. 

In the last 12 months, the return on capital employed (RoCE) declined to 9.6%, above the peers. The consensus estimate for FY24 for RoCE is 22.8%, again ahead of the peers. 

Exxon Mobil Corporation reported a return on equity (RoE) of 14.2% in the last 12 months, down from 18.0% in FY23. The market consensus projects an RoE of 23.0% in FY24, again ahead of its peers. 

The ratio of return on invested capital (RoIC) to the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) has been 3.7 in the past several years. This ratio implies a excellent shareholder value creation. 

The institutional, legal, and compliance risks associated with the company's country are minimal. In combination with stringent business standards, shareholder rights are very highly protected.

XOM boasts high trading liquidity. The average private investor can sell his common position in the stock immediately. Liquidity is usually very stable and remains favourable on the days with the lowest activity. The trading volume mostly stays the same even under highly turbulent market conditions. 

No other major risks have been identified.

The risk of default is minimal. We note robust profitability, solid return on capital, strong debt servicing capacity, adequate interest coverage, solid cash flow generation, and an favourable capital structure, among the positive credit factors. 

In highly turbulent market conditions, XOM is not volatile. In other words, the stock will fall far less than the index in times of extreme market volatility or shocking company news. Standalone, the worst-day losses (less than 1% of the time) will likely be very low. 

In normal market circumstances, XOM is not volatile. Put differently, without outstanding market volatility or shocking company news, the stock's price will stay within a narrow range. The stock's losses on its worst days (less than 1-5% of the time) will range from very low to negligible. 

Considering past and projected metrics, the stock is neither 'expensive' nor 'cheap' compared to its peers. Specifically, the stock is fairly valued on P/E, neutral on EV/EBITDA, overpriced on P/FCF. 

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Exxon Mobil Corporation

$ 113.92

6

Exxon Mobil Corporation

$ 113.92

6

Risk factor

Profitability factor

Risk / Profitability

About

About

Risk factor

Profitability factor

$ 113.92

About

About

Exxon Mobil Corporation

$ 113.92

6

Exxon Mobil Corporation

$ 113.92

6

Risk factor

Profitability factor

Risk / Profitability

About

About

Risk factor

Profitability factor

$ 113.92

About

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