The war in the Middle East, which has deprived the world of about 20% of the global supply of oil and liquefied natural gas, is changing expectations about global inflation, economic growth and the outlook for monetary policy. An average oil price of $150 or even $200 a barrel no longer seems impossible to analysts, and such a rise could reignite inflation.

'An incredible shift': where two weeks of war in Iran has taken the world economy

Adobe Inc.

Ulta Beauty, Inc.

SentinelOne, Inc.

PagerDuty, Inc.

ServiceTitan, Inc.

Morgan Stanley

Dollar General Corporation

CF Industries Holdings, Inc.

Firefly Aerospace Inc.

The Descartes Systems Group Inc.

Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft

Daily review and forecast of events on the U.S. stock market from Mikhail Denislamov, Deputy Director of Freedom Capital Markets Research.

Morning in New York: inflation statistics will set the vector for trading

Earlier, Morgan Stanley warned that the Fed may postpone monetary policy easing

The market has little hope of a Fed rate cut this year. Oil prices are to blame

That said, the bank did maintain its forecast for a rate cut at the Fed's June meeting

Fed may delay rate cuts due to oil shock, Morgan Stanley warned

The Consumer Price Index (CPI), which reflects the dynamics of the cost of goods and services in the U.S. economy, <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm">rose</a> by 0.3% in February in monthly terms and by 2.4% in annual terms. This was fully in line with the expectations of economists surveyed by Dow Jones, CNBC <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/10/new-inflation-data-is-set-for-release-wednesday-how-to-trade-it.html?&amp;qsearchterm=CPI">reports</a>. In January, annualized CPI growth <a href="https://oninvest.com/article/inflacia-v-ssa-zamedlilas-do-2-4-i-okazalas-nize-ozidanij-cto-budet-so-stavkoj">was</a> 2.4%; last December, it was 2.7%. The previous peak value of the index was recorded in September 2025, when its growth exceeded 3%.

US inflation stabilized before the Iranian crisis. What will happen to the rate?

Stocks fall, dollar rises, and traders are now less hopeful about Fed rate cuts

The war has forced investors to rethink trading strategies. What has lost relevance

Oracle Corporation

Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft

The week began with a sharp jump in oil prices and a collapse on Asian stock exchanges - the conflict between the U.S. and Iran is dragging on, and investors are increasingly concerned about the destabilization of the global economy. Market attention will continue to be focused on events in the Middle East, <a href="https://www.wsj.com/economy/week-ahead-for-fx-bonds-middle-east-developments-oil-prices-in-focus-u-s-inflation-due-8143012a?mod=Searchresults&amp;pos=1&amp;page=1#:~:text=View%20more-,All%20eyes%20will%20be%20on%20developments%20in%20the%20Middle%20East,-after%20the%20U">writes</a> The Wall Street Journal.

Iran war, US inflation, Oracle report: what investors need to know this week

US President Donald Trump has officially <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2026/03/nominations-sent-to-the-senate-b376/">nominated</a> economist Kevin Warsh to be the next Fed Chairman. The nomination has already been sent to the Senate, according to the White House website. If Worsh is confirmed, he will succeed Jerome Powell, whose term expires in May, and will hold the position for four years.

Trump formally nominated Kevin Warsh to be chairman of the US Federal Reserve Board

Moderna, Inc.

GitLab Inc.

Box, Inc.

indie Semiconductor, Inc.

AnaptysBio, Inc.

Pinterest, Inc.

Ziff Davis, Inc.

Best Buy Co., Inc.

Target Corporation

On Holding AG

Archer Aviation Inc.

New York Morning: Wall Street remains under the pressure of geopolitics

GDP in the U.S. <a href="https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/gdp-advance-estimate-4th-quarter-and-year-2025">grew</a> only 1.4% in the fourth quarter of 2025, while economists surveyed by Dow Jones expected the economy to expand by 2.5%, CNBC <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/19/stock-market-today-live-updates.html">writes</a>. The release was delayed due to the shutdown of federal agencies. In the third quarter of 2025, the index <a href="https://oninvest.com/article/potrebitel-skie-rashody-obespecili-ekonomike-ssa-samyj-bystryj-prirost-za-dva-goda">expanded</a> by 4.4%, significantly beating forecasts.