Bloomberg described four scenarios for the development of the Iranian crisis: from shock to bullish

Bloomberg economists have modeled the potential trajectories of the U.S. war with Iran, assessing their impact on world markets and the cost of energy carriers. At the same time, the experts consider the chances of realizing both the most destructive option with strikes on oil and gas infrastructure and the most positive outcome with a change of power in Tehran to be low.

The most severe scenario, the probability of which Bloomberg analysts estimate as "low to medium," involves prolonged hostilities with massive attacks on energy facilities of both Iran and the Middle East allies of the United States. In the event of a prolonged blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, through which passes about a quarter of the world's oil transit, oil quotations could reach $108 per barrel. Such a price spike could lead to an increase in inflation well above the targets of central banks and damage economic growth in the United States and Europe. Bloomberg names Russia as one of the main beneficiaries of disruptions in Middle Eastern energy supplies, which will be able to run a deficit-free budget at the expense of expensive oil.

The development of the conflict without critical destruction of infrastructure and a prolonged blockade of transportation routes has a "medium to high" probability, according to Bloomberg. In this case, the cost of oil will be about $80 per barrel. Macroeconomic consequences will be restrained, price growth in Western countries will be insignificant, and central banks will be able to avoid raising interest rates and other radical monetary measures.

A ceasefire agreement between the parties is also considered by Bloomberg experts as an event with "medium or high" probability. In this case, disruptions in energy supplies will cease, and oil prices will return to $65 per barrel. Inflationary pressure will continue to decline, which will remove the main risks to the global economy.

The most optimistic outcome for Western markets would be the fall of radical Islamists in Iran. But Bloomberg analysts consider this outcome to be the least probable. A change of government in Iran is possible, but only in the long term and after a long period of instability. A popular uprising is hardly possible now: there is no organized opposition inside the country, and Iranian security forces tightly control the situation on the streets, the agency notes.

Futures for benchmark Brent crude approached $84 per barrel on March 4, continuing to rise for the fourth consecutive session. Fighting in the Middle East continued for a fifth day, with Israeli and U.S. strikes on Iran provoking retaliatory attacks by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps on energy infrastructure in the Persian Gulf. US President Donald Trump has promised that the US government will insure all shipping companies in the region against risks "at a very reasonable cost" and the navy will protect tankers "if necessary".

TTF benchmark contracts for the supply of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in Europe rise by 2% on March 4. Since Friday, February 27, gas prices in the EU have already jumped by 70% amid the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the shutdown of Qatari liquefaction plants due to the Iranian missile attack, Bloomberg writes. Meanwhile, China, the largest LNG importer, called on the parties to the Iranian conflict to ensure safe passage of ships through the strait and avoid actions that could further disrupt LNG exports from Qatar.

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor