The market is playing down the risks that the Strait of Hormuz may now remain closed for months rather than days

Oil breaks through $126 after Trump signals Hormuz blockade will drag on

Brent crude oil with delivery in June jumped in trading on April 29 above $118 per barrel and at one point broke through the $119.45 mark. This, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-rises-reports-us-will-extend-iran-blockade-prolonging-mideast-supply-2026-04-29/">Reuters</a> and the <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/243b9344-bab3-4129-bbec-825e97d661f4">Financial Times</a> note, is the highest level for Brent in the past month. Also, the average price of gasoline in the United States has increased to the maximum since July 2022, <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/personal-finance/article/gas-prices-jump-to-highest-level-since-july-2022-as-oil-hovers-near-110-154947778.html">writes</a> Yahoo Finance. According to the American Automobile Association (AAA), the national average price of gasoline rose to nearly $4.23 per gallon, up about $0.12 over the past two days and more than a dollar higher than a year ago.

Brent crude jumped to $119 a barrel, US gasoline at highest since 2022

In trading on April 29, Mark crude oil with delivery in June jumped more than 3% at the moment, reaching a peak of $115.43 per barrel. This is the highest in the last month, Reuters <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-rises-reports-us-will-extend-iran-blockade-prolonging-mideast-supply-2026-04-29/">points out</a>. At the time of publication, Brent has slowed down a bit - traded at $114.57 per barrel. North American WTI, meanwhile, adds almost 3.5% against the previous close and costs $103.4.

Brent crude oil peaks for the month amid fears of a prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz

The withdrawal of the third largest oil producer in the group from OPEC could weaken the cartel's influence and increase volatility amid the geopolitical crisis, analysts warned, commenting on the UAE's decision to <a href="https://oninvest.com/article/arabskie-emiraty-vyhodat-iz-opek-i-opek">withdraw</a> from OPEC. This step, experts warn, threatens long-term consequences for the oil market and the organization itself. The Arab Emirates is going to withdraw from OPEC on Ma 1.

"The cartel has lost its former influence": what does the Arab Emirates' exit from OPEC mean?

Europe faces recession if the crisis around the Strait of Hormuz is not resolved within a month, according to Mark Dowding, director of bond investments at RBC BlueBay Asset Management. "I think it will become inevitable," Bloomberg <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-27/rbc-bluebay-s-dowding-sees-recession-risk-for-europe-on-iran-war">quoted the </a>financier as saying.

Europe faces recession if Strait of Hormuz crisis not resolved in a month - RBC

Goldman Sachs has raised its oil price forecasts for this year due to production cuts in the Middle East, Reuters <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/analysts-reassess-oil-price-estimates-iran-conflict-disrupts-markets-2026-04-27/">writes</a>. In the most negative scenario, the bank's analysts admit that in the fourth quarter it will average $120 per barrel, <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/448b06dd-6f8e-455a-add8-3d64e9d96d8b">reports the</a> Financial Times. Supplies through the Strait of Hormuz will only recover by the end of June, Goldman predicted. It previously expected full exports to return in mid-Ma.

Goldman admits oil at $120: he expects supply to recover no sooner than the end of June

Intel Corporation

Strong results from chipmaker Intel, which triggered a rally in the entire semiconductor industry, as well as hopes that the U.S. and Iran would return to the negotiating table, pushed the stock market to new all-time highs. The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indexes ended trading on April 24 at record levels, but the Dow Jones, which is called an indicator of the "old" economy, remained in the red zone. Intel shares were excluded from the DJIA in 2024.

"AI returns to the spotlight": S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq Composite hit records

Oracle Corporation

Tesla, Inc.

Palantir Technologies Inc.

Microsoft Corporation

ServiceNow, Inc.

International Business Machines Corporation

On Thursday, the S&amp;P 500 index renewed its intraday historic high, but ended the day in the negative due to news from the Middle East: the publication Axios reported that Iran continued to mine the Strait of Hormuz. Earlier, the US President <a href="https://oninvest.com/article/tramp-porucil-unictozat-suda-razbrasyvausie-miny-v-ormuzskom-prolive-akcii-upali">instructed</a> the Navy to open fire on boats planting mines. This led to a rise in the price of oil. The market was also pulled down by the shares of software developers after the reports of several companies.

Iran mines Strait of Hormuz, oil above $105, software developer stocks collapse

The U.S. military reported intercepting two Iranian oil supertankers trying to circumvent the U.S. blockade in the Strait of Hormuz.

US announces interception of two Iranian supertankers. Oil, $104

Major U.S. stock indices opened on April 22 with growth amid contradictory signals from the Middle East. On the one hand, US President Donald Trump <a href="https://oninvest.com/article/tramp-prodlil-peremirie-s-iranom-cto-sovetuet-ubs">extended the</a> ceasefire with Iran, referring to the "split" in the Iranian government over the continuation of peace talks. On the other - already after this announcement, Iran announced the seizure of two ships in the Strait of Hormuz - allegedly for violating maritime laws. Both ships were escorted to Iranian shores by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). This is the first time Iran has seized ships since the beginning of the war, Reuters <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/us-will-indefinitely-extend-ceasefire-unclear-if-iran-agrees-2026-04-22/">notes</a>.

"Guessing Game": oil at $100, stocks rise amid Iran uncertainty

Frontier Group Holdings, Inc.

Covenant Logistics Group, Inc.

Kaiser Aluminum Corporation

Hecla Mining Company

Since the start of the year, the Russell 2000 index, the benchmark for small- and mid-cap stocks, has risen nearly 11.5% – despite a selloff in March, when it lost more than 10% from its January peak. Such volatility has been driven in part by the scale of the conflict in the Middle East and its impact on commodity flows. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz became the trigger that <a href="https://www.thetimes.com/business/economics/article/strait-of-hormuz-closure-threatens-brent-crude-100-surge-w3sxph3pl#:~:text=The%2520Middle%2520East%2520conflict%2520pushed%2520Brent%2520crude%2520to%2520%2524119.50%2520a%2520barrel%2520for%2520the%2520first%2520time%2520since%25202022%2520but%2520prices%2520fell%2520back%2520on%2520reports%2520that%2520the%2520G7%2520will%2520intervene">pushed</a>&nbsp;Brent crude toward $120 per barrel, while small caps are particularly sensitive to fuel costs and consumer sentiment.

Stabilization or escalation: Two scenarios, four names to play the U.S.-Iran conflict

Citigroup Inc.

Citi analysts have presented possible scenarios of oil market development until the end of the year, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/21/citi-oil-prices-stocks-strait-hormuz-supply-shock.html">reports</a> CNBC. They assume that prices may vary from $95 to $130 per barrel - depending on the situation with supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, which remains blocked due to the conflict between the U.S. and Iran. Market recovery directly depends on the timing of the opening of this corridor, the bank points out.