First post-shutdown US labor market data surprised with job gains

The U.S. added 119,000 jobs outside the agricultural sector in September, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported. At the same time, the total number of jobs was little changed from what it was back in April, the Bureau added. It estimated the unemployment rate at 4.4%.

Analysts had forecast job gains of only 50,000, NBC News wrote. The actual data are a "big surprise," Bloomberg noted. They beat all 67 estimates the agency had compiled. The closest was Citigroup at 105,000. Although the BLS lowered estimates for July and August by a combined 33,000 jobs, that doesn't overshadow the September statistics in any way, the agency said.

Job cuts were most common in transportation, warehouses and the federal government, the BLS says. According to Bloomberg, this reflects the results of the "Department of Government Efficiency" (DOGE), which was headed by Tesla CEO Elon Musk earlier this year.

Strong labor market statistics strengthened Infrastructure Capital CEO Jay Hetfield's view that the U.S. Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates at its December meeting, Bloomberg reports. "We continue to expect a pause in December. We are confident that inflation is gradually declining and that four [rate] cuts will follow next year when the new Fed chairman takes office (Jerome Powell's term will end in May. - Oninvest). Thus, 10-year [US government bonds] should remain within 4%, which is good for equities," Hetfield noted.

Traders, on the other hand, slightly increased their estimates of the likelihood of a rate cut in December, the CME FedWatch tool shows. The chance of a quarter percentage point cut is estimated at 35.6%. For comparison: a day earlier, on November 19, it was 30.07%.

Futures on major U.S. stock indices were actively growing before the opening of trading in New York. As of 15:00 CET, contracts on the S&P 500 were up about 1.6%, futures on the blue-chip index Dow Jones were up 1%, and on the Nasdaq Composite - 2.1%.

Investors were also encouraged by the report of Nvidia, the global market leader in artificial intelligence processors. The company beat Wall Street's revenue and profit forecasts last quarter and also gave a stronger-than-expected forecast for the current quarter. This eased market concerns about the overvaluation of AI companies and the bubble around them.

September labor market data was originally scheduled to be released on October 3. The delay was caused by a record long pause in the work of the U.S. government. The data collected in October is expected to be presented on December 16 - as part of the report for November, NBC News wrote.

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor