Morning in New York: Nvidia will support the bulls

Daily review and forecast of events on the U.S. stock market from Mikhail Denislamov, Deputy Director of Freedom Capital Markets Research

The upcoming trading dynamics will be largely determined by the reaction to NVIDIA's quarterly results published the day before at the post-market. The company reported revenues of $57 billion with forecasts of $55.2 billion and earnings per share of $1.3 with a consensus of $1.26. The strongest performance came from the data center segment, which generated $51.2 billion in revenue, compared to market expectations of $49.3 billion. The company's own guidance for the current quarter calls for revenue of $65 billion (±2%), compared to consensus of $62 billion. The report notes strong demand for Blackwell architecture and full utilization of cloud GPUs. NVIDIA shares rose more than 5% in the extended session, supporting artificial intelligence-related companies. The corporation's CEO Jensen Huang doesn't think talk of a bubble in the AI sector is relevant. To prove this point, the top manager pointed to the transition of the company's clients to accelerated computing, the spread of generative AI and the formation of agent-based AI systems. NVIDIA CFO Colette Kress commented on the topic of GPU life cycles and depreciation, which has recently been at the center of discussions regarding the valuation of AI companies. The top executive noted that A100s delivered six years ago (which is the useful life built into valuation models that have been criticized as overstated) are still loaded to capacity and in active use.

This Thursday, with a delay of more than two weeks, some official labor market data for October will be released. Due to the lengthy government shutdown, the Fed is left without some relevant information ahead of the December meeting.

There will also be released statistics on initial jobless claims for the week of November 15 (consensus: 227k), secondary market home sales for October (consensus: +0.4% mom, September: +1.5%). November business activity index data from FRB Kansas City (October: 6 points) and FRB Philadelphia regional index (October: -12.8 points) will be released.

Walmart (WMT), Jacobs Engineering (J), NetEase (NTES), Vipshop (VIPS), Warner Music (WMG), ZIM Integrated Shipping Services (ZIM) and Bath & Body Works (BBWI) will report before the main session opens. Intuit (INTU), Ross Stores (ROST), Copart (CPRT), Veeva Systems A (VEEV), Webull Corporation (BULL), Gap (GAP) and Elastic (ESTC) will release quarterly results after the close of trading.

Futures on US indices demonstrate positive dynamics. We assess the balance of risks for the upcoming trades as positive with increased volatility. We focus on S&P 500 fluctuations in the range of 6650-6770 points (from 0% to +1.9% of the previous session's closing level).

Futures on US indices demonstrate positive dynamics. We assess the balance of risks for the upcoming trades as positive with increased volatility. We focus on S&P 500 fluctuations in the range of 6650-6770 points (from 0% to +1.9% of the previous session's closing level).

- According to Bloomberg, the White House has opposed a legislative restriction on exporting NVIDIA's (NVDA) AI chips to China. This was a positive signal for the company, which has long sought to relax the requirements for the terms of supplying its products abroad.

- Palo Alto Networks (PANW) reported fiscal Q1 adjusted EPS of $0.93 with a consensus of $0.89. The company's revenue rose 16% to $2.5 billion, against average expectations of $2.46 billion, helped by a solid increase in sales of next-generation products. At the same time, revenue guidance in the range of $2.57-2.59 bln and adjusted EPS in the range of $0.93-0.95, as well as annualized guidance, fell short of the consensus, which caused the issuer's quotations to decline.

- Oddity Tech (ODD) quarterly revenue increased 24% YoY to $148 mln (consensus: $145 mln), adjusted EPS rose to $0.4 from last year's $0.35, and gross margin improved to 71.6%. EBITDA climbed 16% to $29 million. Management raised its full-year guidance: revenue is expected in the range of $806-809 million and EPS in the range of $2.10-2.12. The guidance for the fourth quarter puts these numbers at $149-152 million and $0.11-0.13, respectively. The company also announced the launch of its new medtech brand METHODIQ. Shares of ODD responded to the release with strong growth after the close of the main session on November 19.

- Jack in the Box (JACK) shares are falling in the post-market. The company reported adjusted EPS of $0.3 with a consensus of $0.45. Revenue declined 6.6% YoY to $326.2 million, which was close to average market expectations. Restaurant margins declined from 18.5% to 16.1% due to costs associated with opening locations in Chicago. For fiscal 2026, management forecasts revenue trends in the range of -1% to +1%. It plans to launch approximately 20 new locations and close 50-100 franchise restaurants.

Trading on November 19 on U.S. stock exchanges ended mostly in positive territory, which was due to the expectation of a strong report NVIDIA. The S&P 500 rose 0.38%, the NASDAQ 100 gained 0.56%, the Dow Jones added 0.1%, only the Russell 2000 declined by an insignificant 0.04%.

The technology (XLK: +0.7%) and financial (XLF: +0.37%) sectors traded better than the market. Energy (XLE: -1.3%) and real estate developers (XLRE: -0.78%) were the outsiders.

The shares of the "Magnificent Seven" showed mixed dynamics. NVIDIA (NVDA: +2.85%) and Alphabet (GOOGL: +3%) were the growth leaders.

The published minutes of the Fed's October meeting confirmed the existence of disagreements among the regulator's leadership. Many FOMC members were in favor of keeping the rate unchanged until the end of the year, which corresponds to the position of Jerome Powell indicated in recent speeches. In turn, the representative of the Board of Governors Stephen Miran believes that at some point the Fed may return to balance sheet reduction.

The auction on 20-year US Treasury bonds with the volume of $16 bln was held with a weak result. The yield exceeded expectations by 0.2 bps, while demand from foreign participants and bid-to-cover ratio were below recent levels.

- SEMrush (SEMR: +74%) has agreed to be acquired by Adobe (ADBE) for $12 per share, which implies a premium of about 78% to the previous closing price. The deal is valued at $1.9 billion and is expected to close in the first half of 2026.

- Interest in Exact Sciences (EXAS: +23.7%) intensified after Bloomberg reported that Abbott (ABT) may be close to a purchase agreement. Sources specify that negotiations are ongoing and a final decision has not been made yet.

- Strong demand for fiber infrastructure projects and growing data center needs drove Dycom Industries' (DY: +9.8%) strong third-quarter results. The company beat consensus on EPS and revenue, and raised the lower end of its FY 2026 guidance and announced the acquisition of Power Solutions for $1.95 billion.

- Target (TGT: -2.8%) reported a 2.7% decline in comparable sales, which was 60 bps worse than expected. The retailer's gross margin unexpectedly fell due to higher markdowns. Management lowered the upper end of its full-year profit forecast. It also announced increased investment in 2026 and a partnership with OpenAI.

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor