Five small caps for investing in the space sector ahead of the SpaceX IPO

Expectations for a potential IPO by SpaceX have become a driver for the broader space sector. Elon Musk’s company has raised its target valuation to more than $2 trillion as it prepares investor presentations ahead of a potential IPO, Bloomberg reports, citing people familiar with the matter. The listing is expected this summer, with SpaceX potentially raising as much as $75 billion, which would make it one of the largest market debuts ever. Below, analyst Aldiyar Anuarbekov has picked five publicly traded space small caps for Oninvest that give investors exposure to the sector ahead of SpaceX’s expected IPO. The names specialize in satellite intelligence, radar imaging, infrastructure, and defense tech.

In 2025, the space sector stopped being a niche market for enthusiasts. The combined market capitalization of 40 publicly traded companies in the industry surged nearly fourfold, from $68 billion in April 2025 to $251 billion in April this year, according to a Deutsche Bank report reviewed by Oninvest. Based on the bank’s estimates, the group has gained an average of 81% year to date in 2026, versus roughly 5% for the Nasdaq. The strongest-performing segment was Earth observation and satellite imaging: companies in that category saw their combined market capitalization jump 321% year over year and 124% since the start of 2026.

The main driver of investor interest is not deep-space exploration itself, but rising government and defense spending. According to Piper Sandler estimates seen by Oninvest, funding for the U.S. Space Force could rise nearly 80% – from $42.7 billion in fiscal 2026 to $75.9 billion in 2027. BofA also points to a growing bottleneck in access to orbit: launch schedules at several operators are effectively booked out for 2–3 years, while companies across the sector are building in annual launch-cost increases of roughly 10% over the next five years.

Following the sector’s 2025 rally, investors may want to look beyond launch providers alone and focus on adjacent segments, including satellite intelligence and Earth observation, data processing, and ground and orbital infrastructure. Small-cap companies already generating revenue, building order books, and operating in clearly defined technological niches appear particularly well-positioned. Anuarbekov looks at five such names below.

BlackSky Technology

BlackSky (BKSY) positions itself as a provider of space-based intelligence, combining satellite data, analytics, and monitoring tools for strategic assets and events. The company operates across two fast-growing segments: defense intelligence and commercial Earth observation.

For 2025, BlackSky reported revenue of $106.6 million versus $102.1 million a year earlier. Its order book increased 32% to $345 million. Adjusted EBITDA totaled $900,000 versus $11.6 million in 2024. In 2026, the company expects revenue growth to $120-145 million and adjusted EBITDA in the range of $6-18 million.

The company also stated that its third Gen-3 satellite delivered very-high-resolution imagery within 24 hours of launch and quickly entered commercial operations. For investors, that reduces one of the sector’s key risks: it is not enough to successfully place a satellite into orbit – companies must also begin monetizing those assets rapidly. At the same time, pressure remains concentrated on capex: BlackSky expects capital expenditures of $50-60 million in 2026, which is significant for a business of its scale.

H.C. Wainwright analyst Scott Buck on February 27 reiterated a “buy” rating on BlackSky shares and maintained a target price of $42 per share. According to MarketWatch data, the stock has eight “buy” ratings versus one “hold.” The average target price is $28.10 per share, nearly 30% below the current share price.

Redwire

Redwire (RDW) is a provider of space infrastructure, developing solar panels, sensors, satellite platforms, and orbital mission systems. The company positions itself as an integrated space and defense tech company operating at the intersection of aerospace infrastructure, autonomous systems, and multidomain operations. With its acquisition of Edge Autonomy, Redwire expanded its portfolio with unmanned platforms for defense customers.

In 2025, Redwire increased revenue 10.3% to $335.4 million, expanded its order book to a record $411.2 million, and boosted liquidity to $130.2 million, more than double the level for 2024. At the same time, the net loss widened from $112.2 million to $226.6 million. Another potential growth driver is Redwire’s new Michigan facility spanning roughly 7,900 square meters, which will expand production of fuel cells for Stalker drones.

On April 17, BofA maintained an “underperform” rating on Redwire shares, but raised its target price to $7 per share from $6 per share, while Alliance Global Partners on April 22 reiterated a “buy” rating and increased its target price to $15 per share from $10.50 per share. Overall, nine analysts rate Redwire a “buy,” while one recommends “hold” and another “sell,” according to MarketWatch data. The average target price is $14.10 per share, implying upside of 62.5%.

Voyager Technologies

Voyager Technologies (VOYG) went public in June 2025, pricing at $31 per share. On its first day of trading, the stock opened at $69.95 per share, Barron’s reported.

The company combines space infrastructure, defense systems, propulsion technologies, and the Starlab commercial orbital station project, which is designed to support a permanent human presence in low Earth orbit. However, all payments tied to the Starlab project currently remain linked to the development stage rather than commercial operation of the station.

For 2025, Voyager’s revenue rose 15% to $166.4 million, the order book increased 33% to $265.6 million, and liquidity reached $704.7 million. The company’s 2026 forecast implies revenue growth of 35-53% to $225-255 million.

The key limitation of the investment case remains the absence of a revenue-generating flagship asset: Starlab has not yet launched as a standalone commercial business, while Voyager’s net loss for 2025 totaled $116.1 million. As a result, the company appears to be a longer-term bet on the buildout of commercial low Earth orbit infrastructure versus BlackSky and Redwire.

BofA has maintained a “buy” rating on Voyager shares, but lowered its target price to $39 per share from $41 per share. Citi on March 30 initiated coverage of Voyager with a “buy” rating and a target price of $36 per share. The company currently has eight “buy” ratings from Wall Street analysts, alongside one “hold” and one “sell,” according to MarketWatch data. The average target price is $37.50 per share, implying upside of 42%.

QPS Holdings

QPS Holdings (464A.T) is a Japanese company operating in the satellite radar imaging segment. Unlike optical systems, such satellites can observe the Earth’s surface regardless of time of day or weather conditions – capabilities that are especially in demand in defense, infrastructure monitoring, and emergency management. The company has stated that its QPS-SAR satellite is roughly 20 times lighter and 100 times cheaper than conventional radar satellites.

In the third quarter of the fiscal year ending in May, QPS Holdings reported revenue of JPY1.61 billion, or about $10.1 million, and an operating loss of JPY1.45 billion, or about $9.1 million. Its full-year forecast implies revenue of JPY4 billion, or about $25.1 million.

The key argument supporting the investment case is a five-year contract with Japan’s Ministry of Defense to provide satellite data services, with expected revenue of JPY69.7 billion, or roughly $437.2 million. In addition, in April, iQPS signed a contract with Rocket Lab to launch three additional QPS-SAR satellites.

Synspective

Synspective (290A.T) is another Japanese player in the radar-based Earth observation market. The company is developing a model in which satellites collect geospatial information, while analytics platforms convert that data into finished solutions for government and commercial customers.

For 2025, Synspective increased revenue 144.8% to JPY6.14 billion, or about $38.5 million, while the net loss narrowed to JPY371 million, or about $2.3 million, versus JPY3.59 billion, or about $22.5 million, a year earlier. In 2026, the company forecasts revenue of JPY16.05 billion and net profit of JPY3.01 billion, or about $18.9 million, making it one of the few companies in the sector where a path to profitability is already visible.

In a note published on April 22, Daiwa Securities wrote that investors in Japanese space companies are increasingly focused not only on launches and government support, but also on the timing of profitability and the sustainability of growth once subsidies decline. For Synspective, that is a key factor: reducing dependence on subsidies while maintaining high growth rates could improve the company’s long-term investment appeal.