Shares of NioCorp Developments, which is engaged in exploration and development of mineral deposits in North America, have the potential to rise about 35%, Freedom Capital Markets analyst Vitaly Kononov argued in a recent initiation report on the company. He attributes the upside to long-term demand for critical minerals in the U.S. and progress at NioCorp’s flagship project, which is moving into the construction phase.
Details
The Freedom Capital Markets analyst initiated coverage of rare-earth specialist NioCorp with a “buy” rating and a target price of $8.70 per share, implying upside of about 35% versus the last close. In trading on Thursday, January 8, the stock fell 2.7% to close at $6.44 per share.
NioCorp shares have risen more than 300% over the past 12 months.
About NioCorp
NioCorp could benefit from sustained long-term demand for critical minerals in the U.S., wrote Kononov.
The company is developing the Elk Creek project in Nebraska, which hosts one of the few primary sources of niobium in North America. The asset also offers potential for by-product production of scandium, titanium, and rare earth elements and is entering the construction stage. Niobium is critical for U.S. national defense, Kononov mentions, and plays a role in global decarbonization through the production of low-alloy steel that is lighter and stronger, improving fuel efficiency in transportation and reducing the carbon footprint of construction.
Kononov pointed to additional factors supporting the investment case, including the strategic importance of critical minerals extraction for U.S. supply-chain security as Washington seeks to reduce reliance on foreign producers. The project could also benefit from potential financing from U.S. Export-Import Bank, which provides funding for large strategic initiatives.
The analyst also cited the project’s estimated mine life of 51 years and favorable offtake agreements with 10-year terms, under which customers commit to purchasing material in advance, supporting predictable sales.
In December 2025, the company said the mine portal project at Elk Creek had received approval, with construction expected to begin in the first quarter of this year. The development reduces technological and timing risks associated with project execution, Kononov said.
The initiation report adds that Elk Creek is expected to process 750,000 tons of ore annually. NioCorp’s processing plant will be located on site and is designed as an integrated facility operating alongside the underground mine. Expected annual production capacity is projected at 7,450 tons of ferroniobium, 104 tons of scandium oxide, and 12,063 tons of titanium dioxide.
Stock performance
Kononov expects the shares to recover in the first quarter of 2026, citing the “January effect,” when mining companies at the development stage often show gains.
“After a sharp correction from the October 2025 highs, NioCorp shares are trading above their 50-day ($6.18) and 200-day ($4.47) moving averages, confirming the continuation of the long-term bullish trend,” Kononov said.
Wall Street broadly shares Freedom’s positive view. The stock has four “buy” ratings, with an average target price of $11.07 per share, implying nearly 72% upside.
