Freedom short-term trade idea: Buy Century Aluminum as beneficiary of Trump policies

Freedom Broker is opening a short-term trade idea on mid-cap aluminum producer Century Aluminum, expecting the stock to gain about 13% over the next two months. The call is based on what the analysts describe as the company’s unique position as a domestic producer of primary aluminum, benefitting from Trump's trade policy and tariff protection.

Freedom estimates the fair value of Century at $52 per share on a two-month horizon, according to a note seen by Oninvest. That implies about 13% upside versus the closing price on Friday, February 13. (U.S. markets were closed Monday.) The stock ended Friday down 7.40% at $46.00 per share.

Freedom states the recent selloff was technical in nature and has created a tactical entry point. It recommends opening a long position in Century, with portfolio exposure capped at 2%.

Century is a direct beneficiary of current U.S. economic policy under Trump, the analysts wrote. The company domestically produces primary aluminum, a material viewed as strategically important for defense supply chains. Meanwhile, structural demand drivers for aluminum are playing out, including electrification, grid modernization, renewable infrastructure build-out, and reshoring of industrial capacity to the U.S.

Century is uniquely positioned because its production base is domestic, which leaves it not exposed to higher import duties and allows it to benefit from protectionist measures, the note states. Freedom highlights Section 232 of the U.S. Trade Expansion Act of 1962, which allows the president to impose duties, quotas, and restrictions on imports deemed a national security risk. Trump previously imposed a 25% tariff on all primary aluminum imports, whereas the earlier regime allowed nearly three quarters of shipments to avoid the tariff.

Key risks include changes in energy prices, sensitivity of demand to the macroeconomic backdrop, and potential regulatory shifts.

Century stock has gained 115% over the last 12 months and 17.5% year to date. The five Wall Street analysts covering the company unanimously rate Century a “buy.” Their average target price stands at $59.80 per share – roughly 30% above the Friday close.