French biotech Abivax rides upbeat data, takeover speculation to 1,400% YTD gain

Shares of European biotech Abivax SA have surged almost 1,400% year to date on the Paris exchange, with its market capitalization now above EUR7.5 billion. Investors are buying the stock, considering the company an attractive takeover target amid successful trials of its experimental drug, Bloomberg writes. Wall Street remains bullish on the name.

Abivax shares are up 1,380% year to date (through December 3) at EUR96.60 per share. That makes the company the top performer in the STOXX Europe 600, Bloomberg notes. The broad index has added about 13% over the same period.

The rally began in July, after Abivax released interim data from final, phase III trials of its drug, obefazimod, in patients with ulcerative colitis, a chronic inflammatory bowel disease. The study showed that patients who took obefazimod for eight weeks achieved remission, meaning their symptoms eased or disappeared.

Following the publication of these data, Abivax placed American depositary receipts on the Nasdaq at $64.00 per ADR. The papers have since risen 78% to $113.80 per ADR.

The results were “exceptional, which nobody expected,” based on earlier, mid-stage data, said Sebastiaan van der Schoot, an analyst at Van Lanschot Kempen, as quoted by Bloomberg.

The company plans to present full results of the obefazimod trials in the second quarter of next year. If successful, Abivax will be able to apply for registration of the drug and subsequently begin sales. The company targets the third quarter of 2027 to launch U.S. sales. In the second half of 2026, it also intends to publish interim results of trials for the therapy of Crohn’s disease, another inflammatory bowel condition.

The potential success of obefazimod in treating both diseases will be the key driver for Abivax shares, according to Morgan Stanley, as cited by Bloomberg. Wolfe Research estimates the drug could reach about EUR6 billion ($7 billion) in sales, which would give it a “significant” share of both markets.

Truist Securities last month called the company a “potential take-out darling with strategic appeal.” Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs Group recently added Abivax to its list of stocks most-favored by hedge funds. Still, Bloomberg calls for caution in light of the MoonLake Immunotherapeutics story: MoonLake lost 90% of its market value in a single day in late September after the Swiss-based company announced late-stage trial data for an experimental skin disease treatment. It had previously been considered an attractive takeout target.

In total, Abivax ADRs have a “buy” rating from 14 Wall Street analysts versus one “hold” recommendation, MarketWatch data shows. The average target price of $120.20 per share implies upside of about 6% versus current levels.