Highlights of the week: Apple and Google deal, Musk approved $1 trillion, US market overheated

Bitcoin fell below $100,000 this week for the first time in more than four months, and Ark Invest head Cathie Wood cut her target price for it by 20% to $1.2 million by 2030, citing the rapid growth of stablecoins. "The Buffett Indicator and the Barclays Overheating Index warn that the U.S. stock market is overvalued. Meanwhile, shareholders agreed to a record $1 trillion compensation for Musk, and Apple is preparing for a $1 billion deal with Google to speed up Siri updates. The main events of November 3-7 are in our review.

Tesla shareholders at their annual meeting backed an unprecedented compensation package for Elon Musk estimated at nearly $1 trillion, with more than 75% of participants voting in favor despite protests from institutional investors, including the Norwegian Petroleum Fund. The plan calls for Musk's stake in the company to increase from 15% to 25% if he meets ambitious goals, among them increasing Tesla's capitalization from the current $1.5 trillion to $8.5 trillion and releasing a million Optimus humanoid robots.

The remuneration is intended to motivate Musk to focus on overcoming the crisis that Tesla is facing due to declining sales. Shareholders question Musk's active involvement in Tesla's business: according to the WSJ, he is looking to catch up in the AI race and is more focused on his startup xAI. The board has acknowledged that it can't make Musk work at Tesla full-time, but is confident that a focus on AI will pay long-term dividends for Tesla as well.

What else is there to read about it?

- Elon Musk said he would leave Tesla if he didn't get 25% of the company's shares - a stake estimated at $1 trillion. Five key questions about whether Musk is worth that amount are in journalist Ekaterina Komarova's article "The Trillion Dollar Question: Will Elon Musk get a record 25% stake in Tesla".

On Tuesday, November 4, the value of bitcoin fell below $100,000 for the first time in more than four months. The total capitalization of the crypto market fell by $289 billion overnight - bitcoin lost about 7% on the day and more than 20% from its October high. Analysts attribute the decline to sales by long-term holders, who realized about 400,000 BTC over the month - an outflow of about $45 billion that unbalanced the market, Bloomberg wrote. In addition, bitcoin-ETFs recorded an outflow of $578 million in just one day, Nov. 4, Ethereum-ETFs lost $219 million. Unlike the October collapse, caused by forced sales and liquidation of margin positions, the current decline, according to analysts, is due to a drop in investor confidence.

The sell-off may last until spring, with a possible decline in the rate to $85,000, according to Markus Thielen, head of 10x Research. However, some analysts see signals of near stabilization: the recovery of dollar liquidity may push prices up again, believes BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes. Experts agree on one thing - the market is entering a consolidation phase, where patience becomes the main asset.

On Thursday, November 6, the head of Ark Invest Cathie Wood revised her long-term forecast on bitcoin, reducing the target price by 2030 from $1.5 million to $1.2 million. In an interview with CNBC, she explained that the rapid growth of stablecoins takes away from bitcoin some of the functions that were previously considered its potential advantage - primarily the role of a means of payment in emerging economies. In trading on Friday, November 7, the value of bitcoin exceeded $100,000.

The global semiconductor market suffered its biggest sell-off in a year as investors withdrew about $500 billion in a sell-off that began Nov. 4 in the U.S. and continued the next day in Asian markets. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 4.1 percent on Tuesday, the sharpest drop in more than three weeks, Bloomberg noted. After months of rallying on AI hype, investors have begun to revise inflated valuations and fear for the sector's profitability amid high interest rates. Japan's SoftBank and other Asian and U.S. tech giants Advantest, Renesas, Tokyo Electron, TSMC, Qualcomm, AMD, Palantir and Nvidia all fell.

At the same time, the reversal reflects profit taking and a temporary realignment of portfolios rather than a loss of faith in AI, analysts said. "Shares that used to lead the market are declining most strongly," Pictet Asset Management noted. According to experts, the correction allows to "let off steam" after the overheated growth, and with a further decline of 15-20%, the securities of leading technology companies may again become attractive for purchases.

Apple plans to pay Google about $1 billion a year for the use of a powerful artificial intelligence model that will be the basis of the long-awaited update of the Siri voice assistant, Bloomberg wrote, citing sources. The deal will give the company access to Google's AI model with 1.2 trillion parameters - eight times more complex than the current version of Siri - and expand the voice assistant's ability to process data and understand context.

Apple plans to introduce an improved Siri in the spring of 2026. The partnership with Google is seen as a transitional solution - while Apple develops its own models. The initial candidate for the partnership was Anthropic, but its $1.5 billion-a-year request forced the company to choose Google, the Bloomberg interviewee said. Due to delays in the launch of AI services, Apple has reshuffled the management of this direction.

Over the past three months, Apple's shares have risen by a third and by the end of October had reached an all-time high - amid growing interest in the iPhone. Now the consensus forecast of Wall Street analysts assumes growth of Apple shares by 4.7% during the year - up to $282.5 per share. The consensus rating of the company's securities is now Overweight ("above the market"), which corresponds to the recommendation to buy the stock.

The ratio of U.S. stock market capitalization to GDP - the so-called "Buffett indicator" - has reached an all-time high, exceeding the level of the pandemic times before the collapse of 2022, Bloomberg reported. The combined value of U.S. stocks is valued at about $72 trillion, nearly twice the size of the country's economy. Barclays analysts believe that such high values indicate signs of market euphoria and excessive investor optimism.

"The current ratio shows that stocks are overvalued and raises concerns about bubble-like behavior," Barclays derivatives strategists wrote.

Barclays has also calculated its own "market overheating" index based on options data going back to 1997. It shows that the share of overheated stocks in the U.S. has reached 11%, a level typical of the dot-com bubble and "meme stock" boom periods. Despite the warnings, most companies in the S&P 500 are showing profit growth and steady revenue, and investments in AI continue to support the market. Experts advise investors to remain cautious and lock in some profits after the rally, remembering that even "Buffett's favorite indicator" is not always able to predict the moment of reversal.

Arkady Volozh's AI company Nebius Group has launched the Nebius Token Factory platform for industrial deployment and optimization of AI models. The new service allows companies to scale the use of open and closed source models with enterprise-grade reliability. The launch of Token Factory, according to analysts, puts Nebius in direct competition with Amazon and Microsoft, strengthening the company's position in cloud infrastructure for AI.

Investors are waiting for Nebius' third-quarter report on November 11, counting on updated forecasts, including on quarterly revenue from recurring subscription payments (ARR). The company's stock is up nearly 300% since the beginning of the year, with its September $17.4 billion contract with Microsoft a key driver of growth. Analysts expect news of new partnerships and financial strength, given the capital-intensive construction of data centers in the United States. According to MarketWatch, the consensus rating for the stock is Overweight, with upside potential of 40%.

What else is there to read about it?

- Oninvest correspondent Julia Petrova analyzed how Arkady Volozh's Nebius Group went from an unprofitable startup to one of the most discussed players in the AI market and turned the past into an advantage in the West in the article "The Secret of Nebius: How Arkady Volozh launched the second global startup - already in the West".

Ferrari has reported a rise in third quarter profit and revenue, beating analysts' expectations, despite duties in the US and weakening demand in China. The company's net profit rose 2% to €382 million and revenue rose 7.4% to €1.77 billion on deliveries of 3,401 vehicles. The manufacturer noted an increase in personalized orders and lower production costs, confirming its 2025 revenue forecast of at least €7.1 billion.

Ferrari shares remain under pressure after a record collapse in October 9: investors were disappointed by the long-term forecast for 2030. At that time, the company's securities fell more than 15%, the biggest drop since its listing in Milan. Investors were left disappointed with Ferrari's 2030 targets: at Capital Markets Day, the company lowered its adjusted earnings targets and said it expects to increase annual revenue to "around €9 billion" and earnings per share to €11.5 or higher. That forecast points to a more modest rate of profit growth compared with the targets management set three years ago, Bloomberg noted.

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor