JPMorgan has issued its first long-term forecast for Bitcoin. It could outperform stocks and gold

JPMorgan Asset Management has included Bitcoin in its long-term forecast for the first time and expects the largest cryptocurrency to yield an average of 10% per year over the next decade. According to the bank’s calculations, this could mean it outperforms U.S. stocks, bonds, and gold in terms of returns. However, high volatility currently prevents JPMorgan from considering Bitcoin as a portfolio diversification tool.

In its base-case scenario, JPMorgan expects Bitcoin’s average annual return to be 10%, while in its optimistic scenario, it could reach 17%. In a pessimistic scenario, the cryptocurrency would decline in value by 9.7%. This is the first time the bank’s analysts have presented a range of long-term return forecasts for Bitcoin, Bloomberg notes.

By comparison, JPMorgan forecasts an average annual return of 7.5% for U.S. large-cap stocks, 7.7% for small-cap companies, and 5.6–6.6% for U.S. bonds, and for gold at 5.5%, according to CoinDesk.

However, the potentially higher returns offered by cryptocurrency come with increased risks. According to JPMorgan’s estimates, Bitcoin’s annual volatility will be 55%—more than three times higher than that of large-cap stocks. For this reason, the bank has not yet included it in its core investment portfolio models, Bloomberg reports.

“We believe it is still too early to view Bitcoin as a diversification tool for a balanced portfolio,” the analysts cautioned, stating that they continue to regard the cryptocurrency as a speculative asset. Bitcoin’s role could change if its volatility decreases, its correlation with other assets becomes more stable, regulation becomes clearer, and liquidity and market-pricing mechanisms improve, the JPMorgan team wrote.

High volatility can reduce the overall return on investment: after a significant drop, more substantial growth rates are required for the value to recover. Bloomberg notes that investors in exchange-traded funds who bought cryptocurrency near its peak—just above $126,000 in 2025—faced this risk. Subsequently, the value of their investments fell by 50%.

Despite lingering concerns, Wall Street is gradually expanding its presence in the cryptocurrency market. Financial firms have begun offering clients the ability to trade specific cryptocurrencies, launching specialized funds, and experimenting with asset tokenization, according to Bloomberg.

According to a JPMorgan survey, about 10% of the clients surveyed already hold crypto assets in their portfolios, and approximately 17% plan to prioritize them. The bank’s analysts attribute investors’ interest, in part, to the development of the regulatory framework, which has become more refined and well-defined, the agency notes.

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor