Morning in New York: investors will focus on corporate news

Daily review and forecast of events on the U.S. stock market from Mikhail Denislamov, Deputy Director of Freedom Capital Markets Research.

The key macro releases this Thursday, February 19, will be the weekly jobless claims data, US trade balance statistics for December (consensus: -$56 bln, November: -$56.8 bln) and Pending Home Sales for January (consensus: +1% mom, December: -9.3% month-on-month). The dynamics of initial claims for benefits will allow to more accurately assess the state of the labor market in the US. Trade balance data can affect the current GDP forecast. If the deficit turns out to be higher than the consensus, every $10 bln by which it deviates from this benchmark will reduce the estimate of US GDP growth for the quarter by 0.25 p.p. (% p.a.). However, on the whole, the mentioned releases are unlikely to determine the dynamics of the broad market in the absence of a pronounced surprise.

Before the open of the trading session , Walmart (WMT), Deere (DE), First Majestic Silver (AG), Quanta Services (PWR), Southern (SO), Insmed (INSM ) and Wayfair (W) will report quarterly results. Newmont (NEM), Live Nation (LYV), Akamai (AKAM), Opendoor (OPEN), Transocean (RIG), Guardant Health (GH) and Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM ) will report in the postmarket.

Futures on S&P 500 demonstrate moderately positive dynamics. We assess the balance of risks for the upcoming session as neutral with moderate volatility. If the broad market index goes below 6800 points, it will be a signal to revise the assessment to the negative side, while consolidation above 6950 will open the space for the continuation of growth and shifting expectations to the positive side.

- Carvana (CVNA) shares fell by about 15% in the post-market, although the company's quarterly revenue was above expectations. The negative reaction was caused by deteriorating profitability, besides, the adjusted operating profit amounted to $511 mln against the forecast of $541 mln. Additional pressure on the quotations was put by the management's warnings about the increase of car refurbishment costs. This increased investors' concerns about profitability in 2026.

- Figma (FIG) shares rose about 16% in after-hours trading as the investment community's concerns about the adverse impact of AI technologies on the company's business did not materialize. Its fourth-quarter revenue rose 40% year-over-year to $304 million, beating forecasts. Quotes were supported by investors' positive perception of the expansion of AI-based functionality, as well as this year's revenue guidance, which assumes its growth by 30%.

- eBay (EBAY) and Etsy (ETSY) reacted positively to the announcement of a deal in which eBay is acquiring Depop from Etsy for $1.2 billion. eBay is strengthening its position in the secondhand clothing segment, and its revenue outlook was above average market expectations. Etsy shares are up 14% despite the sale of an asset below the acquisition price ($1.6 billion), as investors see the deal as a move to boost the core business.

- Quotes of DoorDash (DASH) added 12% on the postmarket on the background of the growth of the total number of orders by 32% to 903 million, with a forecast of 884.8 million. Although the revenue of the service fell short of average market expectations, net income increased by 51%. Investors also positively assessed the diversification of the issuer's business.

- Quotes of Avis Budget Group (CAR) collapsed by 12% after the close of the main session, reacting to weak reporting for the fourth quarter. The key negative factor was a write-down of $518 mln related to the revaluation of the electric vehicle fleet. Investors are reassessing the risks of the business model after the management recognized significant problems with the management of the electric vehicle fleet and reduced useful life of the assets.

Trading on February 18 on American stock exchanges ended in plus, although the indices have moved away from intraday highs. The S&P 500 rose by 0.56%, the Nasdaq 100 rose by 0.8%, the Dow Jones added 0.26%, the Russell 2000 - 0.45%.

Energy (XLE: +1.92%) was the top performer as WTI crude oil soared 4.5% on renewed concerns about an escalation of the conflict between the US and Iran, while the technology sector (XLK: +1.03%), supported by Nvidia (NVDA: +1.63% ) and Amazon (AMZN: +1.81%), also looked better than the market. Utility providers (XLU: -1.66%) and the real estate industry (XLRE: -1.34%) were outperformers, reflecting pressure on rate-sensitive and defensive segments amid rising Treasury yields and a shift in investor interest toward more cyclical sectors.

The minutes of the January meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) were moderately hawkish. Most of the committee participants noted the instability of inflation movement towards the 2% target level and the reduction of risks for the labor market.

Industrial production data for January was strong: the indicator grew by 0.7% month-on-month against a consensus of 0.4%, confirming the resilience of the economic cycle. Durable Goods Orders fell 1.4% m/m, but the figure excluding transportation was up 0.9%, with the consensus forecast at 0.5%. Housing starts came in at 1.404 million SAAR versus expectations of 1.32 million, indicating continued activity in the housing sector.

- Global Payments (GPN: +16.5% at the close of trading on February 18) beat consensus on fourth-quarter earnings and revenue, while Merchant Solutions (a suite of payment acceptance tools for businesses) also performed above average expectations. The company's Board of Directors approved a $2.5 billion share repurchase program, and management's guidance for fiscal 2026 exceeded consensus.

- The Madison Square Garden Sports (MSGS: +16.3%) board of directors approved a plan to explore a spin-off procedure that would involve spinning off the New York Knicks and New York Rangers into two separate publicly traded companies. The market viewed the move as a potential catalyst for unlocking value through a simplified structure and more transparent asset valuation.

- Garmin (GRMN: +9.4%) reported fourth quarter revenue and earnings above forecasts. Management noted strong demand in the Fitness segment and expanding share in the wearable electronics market. The outlook for 2026 exceeded consensus. Management recommended a dividend increase and announced a $500 million buyback program.

- Moody's (MCO: +6.5%) beat market expectations on EPS, revenue and operating profit. The company projects double-digit EPS growth and organic revenue growth in its 2026 guidance. Haydens turned out to be more confident than the average benchmarks of the investment community.

- The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) will begin reviewing Moderna's (MRNA: +6.1%) mRNA-1010 seasonal influenza vaccine application. A decision on the drug is due on August 5, 2026. The news reduced regulatory uncertainty around the program and supported the company's portfolio valuation amid expectations of commercial line expansion.

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor