Morning in New York: stock indices in a turbulent zone

Daily review and forecast of events on the U.S. stock market from Mikhail Denislamov, Deputy Director of Freedom Capital Markets Research.

In the absence of important macroeconomic releases, the focus of the upcoming session will shift to foreign policy news and the situation on the oil market.

U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that no new strikes on Iran's energy infrastructure are planned, and this reduced tension in stock markets. The investment community also took positively Netanyahu's words that the war may end sooner than many expect, and Iran has lost the ability to enrich uranium and produce missiles. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced the possibility of temporarily lifting sanctions on Iranian oil already at sea, and also allowed the release of additional volumes of liquid hydrocarbons from the strategic reserve to stabilize prices.

Xpeng Inc. (XPEV) will report quarterly results before the open of trading.

Futures on S&P 500 are trading in the negative. We assess the balance of risks for the upcoming session as neutral with increased volatility against the background of persisting risks of escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, hawkish signals of the Federal Reserve System and pressure of growing yields of treasuries. An additional reason for sharp fluctuations of quotations will be the expiration of quarterly options and futures. The day before, the broad market index closed below the 200-day moving average for the first time since Ma 2025.

- Shares of FedEx (FDX) are up about 9% on the premarket after the company released its fiscal third-quarter results. The company's adjusted EPS beat consensus, while revenue grew 8% YoY. Investors reacted positively to the company's EPS guidance increase for the current year and confirmation of plans to spin off the FedEx Freight division by early summer. Additional optimism is caused by progress in the implementation of the Network 2.0 program, the savings from which, according to the company's estimates, will exceed $1 billion.

- Planet Labs (PL) is up more than 15% before the open of major trading on the back of record fourth-quarter results released. The company's revenue increased 41% YoY to $86.8 million and reached $307.7 million for the full fiscal year 2026. The company reached full-year profitability for the first time on adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow. The Defense & Intelligence segment played a particular role, posting revenue growth of 50% YoY. Own revenue guidance for FY 2027 in the range of $415-440 mln significantly exceeded average market expectations.

- The securities of drone maker Unusual Machines (UMAC) are losing about 9% after announcing a public offering of undetermined size. The funds raised are planned to be used to expand its U.S. drone component inventory and for general corporate purposes. Despite the company's strategic business growth amid demand from the defense sector, the market has focused on the risk of share dilution.

- Firefly Aerospace (FLY) shares are up 5% on the premarket after the release of its fourth quarter results. The aerospace corporation reported revenue of $57.7 million, beating consensus, while its loss per share was less than expected. For the full year 2025, the company's revenue more than doubled to $159.9 million, driven by successful Alpha rocket launches, the expansion of its Blue Ghost lunar mission portfolio and the integration of its SciTec defense division. Revenue forecast for 2026 in the range of $420-450 million reinforces expectations of further scaling the business.

- Insperity (NSP) shares are adding about 8% in the premarket after disclosing a massive insider purchase. According to SEC filings, Chairman and CEO Paul Sarvadi purchased an aggregate of about 202,000 shares of the company between March 17 and March 19 for a total of about $4.6 million. The market viewed such a significant buildup by the executive as a signal of confidence in the business's prospects, especially as Insperity shares have lost a substantial amount of value since the beginning of the year.

March 19 trading on the U.S. stock exchanges ended mostly in the negative territory. S&P 500 decreased by 0.27%, NASDAQ 100 lost 0.29%, Dow Jones fell by 0.44% and only Russell 2000 grew by 0.65%.

The main factors of pressure on the market were concerns about damage to energy infrastructure in the Middle East and the associated risks of toughening the rhetoric of global central banks. The majority of shares of the "Magnificent Seven" closed in the negative. The most active sell-offs were in shares of Tesla (TSLA: -3.18%).

The energy sector (XLE: +1.59%) was the unquestionable leader in the sectoral breakdown amid high geopolitical premium. The outsiders were the suppliers of raw materials (XLB: -1.53%), which came under pressure due to the risks of demand destruction and high energy costs.

A separate concern was caused by the collapse in prices for precious metals. Gold lost about 6% of its value, silver fell in price by more than 8%. Investors are liquidating positions in protective assets to cover margin calls in other markets and against the backdrop of revised expectations on the trajectory of monetary policy easing in the US.

Thursday's macroeconomic statistics confirmed the resilience of the US economy. The number of initial applications for unemployment benefits last week fell to 205 thousand with a consensus of 215 thousand (previous value: 213 thousand), which again indicated the reluctance of companies to reduce staff. The March FRB Philadelphia Manufacturing Activity Index unexpectedly jumped to 18.1 points (February: 16.3 points), marking the third consecutive month of growth. At the same time, sales of new homes in January disappointed investors, amounting to only 587 thousand against the expected 720 thousand, but analysts attributed this decline to the impact of severe weather conditions. Steady economic data provoked a jump in the yield of two-year Treasury bonds, which at one point approached the 4% mark, limiting risk appetite.

- Alibaba Group (BABA: -7.1% at the close of trading on March 19) reported weaker than consensus on key financial metrics, and an additional negative was management's warning of a continued shortage of AI computing capacity in the Chinese market over the next three to five years.

- Uber platform will invest $1.25 billion in Rivian (RIVN: +3.8%) by 2031 to create an exclusive fleet of robotaxis based on R2 SUVs. The first 10,000 such cars are planned to be launched in Miami and San Francisco in 2028.

- Accenture (ACN: +4.3%) reported fiscal Q2 net income and revenue above average forecasts. Analysts praised the gross margin expansion, which completely ignored the slowdown in new orders growth from 10% to 1% YoY.

- The CFO of voice artificial intelligence technology company SoundHound AI (SOUN: -7%) , Nitesh Sharan, will step down on April 3, 2026.

- Elliott Investment Management , a hedge fund known for its hard-hitting campaigns, has built up a significant stake in Align Technology (ALGN: +2.2%) and plans to pressure its management to find effective ways to maximize the company's shareholder value.

- Fintech provider dLocal (DLO: +9.4%) reported strong revenue for the fourth quarter, as well as a 64% increase in total payment processing volume (TPV) across all regions of operation, with earnings in line with average expectations. An additional positive driver for quotations was the announcement of $300 mln buyback program and payment of cash dividends.

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor