Morning in New York: trading will take place in a turbulent zone

Daily review and forecast of events on the U.S. stock market from Mikhail Denislamov, Deputy Director of Freedom Capital Markets Research.

In the center of attention will be the speech of US President Donald Trump (8:30 ET), from which stock players will wait for guidance on the future course of foreign trade policy. This topic came to the forefront again the day before, when the White House head threatened to raise tariffs on South Korean goods up to 25%. In response, representatives of the ruling party of South Korea declared their readiness to accelerate the adoption of a trade agreement with Washington. Nevertheless, investors are concerned about the continuing uncertainty in global trade. An additional negative was the proposal of the U.S. President's administration on a very small increase in rates for Medicare Advantage insurers for 2027. This caused a collapse in shares of some representatives of the healthcare sector, which may remain under pressure in the upcoming session as well.

The key macroeconomic release of the day will be the publication of the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for January (consensus: 91 points, December: 89.1). This indicator is important for assessing the state of consumption, which forms about 70% of economic activity in the United States. Also this Tuesday, January 27, the business activity index from FRB Richmond for January will be released (consensus: -5 points, December: -7). A negative value of the index will signal a still unfavorable situation in industry.

Before the open, UnitedHealth Group (UNH), Boeing (BA), RTX (RTX), American Airlines (AAL), NextEra Energy (NEE ) and General Motors (GM) will report quarterly results. Seagate Technology (STX), Texas Instruments (TXN), F5 (FFIV), PPG Industries (PPG ) and Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) will report at the postmarket.

Futures on US stock indices are showing positive dynamics. We assess the balance of risks for the upcoming trades as positive, but expect increased volatility. We focus on S&P 500 fluctuations in the range of 6900-7000 points (from -0.6% to +0.8% of the previous session's closing level).

- Shares of major health insurers will continue to fall in the premarket, reacting to the aforementioned White House proposal to keep Medicare Advantage rates unchanged for 2027. Humana (HUM) is losing more than 12%, CVS Health (CVS) and UnitedHealth (UNH) are losing about 8% each.

- The collapse of ProPetro (PUMP) quotations by 7% before opening of the main trades was provoked by the announcement of additional issue of 12.5 mln shares, which will dilute the stakes of their current holders.

- Nucor (NUE) loses 2% as its quarterly earnings and revenue came in below expectations. Investors were alarmed by the deterioration of profitability in the segment of steel mills on the background of a decrease in the output of these products and the delayed effect of import tariffs. Management's positive earnings guidance for the current quarter remained on the back burner for investors.

- Triumph Financial (TFIN) is up about 3% in the premarket as its report came in better than expected. Investors positively assessed the results of transportation segments, growth of factoring profitability and management's guidance for the current year of basic earnings per share in the range of $1 while controlling costs.

- Quotes of FirstSun Capital Bancorp (FSUN) before the start of the main trading on January 27 add about 3% on the background of the release of reports for October - December 2025. During this period, the company's net interest margin reached 4.18%, while its loan portfolio grew and asset quality remained high.

Trading on January 26 for most U.S. stock indices ended in a moderate plus. S&P 500 added 0.5%, NASDAQ 100 rose by 0.42%, Dow Jones rose by 0.64%, while Russell 2000 declined by 0.36%.

Shares of the "Magnificent Seven" once again showed mixed dynamics. Apple (AAPL: +2.97%) was in the highest demand from buyers, while Tesla (TSLA: -3.09%) was subject to sell-offs.

As a result of weakening risk appetite, the defensive utilities sector (XLU: +0.73%) emerged as the growth leaders. Outsiders were producers of consumer staples (XLY: -0.66%).

The market was supported the day before by strong macro statistics. The volume of orders for durable goods for November increased by 5.3% m/m, significantly exceeding average expectations. This, coupled with the improvement in the components of production and new orders in the business activity index from FRB Dallas, confirmed the stability of the U.S. economy. Political uncertainty, including threats of another shutdown and Trump's plans to impose a 100% duty on goods from Canada, had a negative impact on the sentiment of stock exchange players.

- NVIDIA will invest an additional $2 billion in CoreWeave (CRWV: +5.7% at the close of trading on Jan. 26), which could expand its AI computing capacity by more than 5 GW by 2030.

- According to Reuters, the U.S. government plans to acquire 10% of USA Rare Earth (USAR: +7.9%) for $17.17 per share. In addition, the company will conduct a private investment round in the amount of $1 bln. All this signals the strategic importance of the company to ensure the independence of the US in the supply of rare earth metals.

- Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT: +7.7%) presented successful results from clinical trials of Elividys over the past three years and reported statistically significant and sustained improvement in motor function in patients taking the drug, expanding its commercial prospects.

- SkyWater Technology (SKYT: +3.3%) will be acquired by IonQ for $1.8 billion at a 12% premium to the closing price on Jan. 23. The deal will allow the buyer to expand its quantum computing hardware manufacturing capabilities.

- Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH: -8.1%) lost all of its contracts with the U.S. Department of the Treasury for failing to comply with requirements to protect sensitive data, including taxpayer information.

- The Trade Desk (TTD: -7.5%) announced a change in CFO and reaffirmed its fourth-quarter outlook.

- Micron (MU: -2.6%) came under pressure due to a Reuters report about a deal between Samsung and NVIDIA to supply next-generation HBM4 memory chips.

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor