U.S. online Thanksgiving sales will grow 6% year-over-year to $8.6 billion, Reuters writes. This is an estimate by Salesforce, which tracks global retail shopping data. Such dynamics indicates that consumers are actively taking advantage of holiday discounts despite macroeconomic uncertainty associated with the imposition of duties, the agency notes.
By mid-day on Nov. 27, Americans' spending was 5.8 percent higher than at the same point a year earlier, Salesforce statistics show.
Why it's important.
Thanksgiving Day and the day following it - Black Friday - kick off the holiday shopping season, which usually brings about a third of annual sales and profits to U.S. retailers, Reuters notes. This year, it takes place amid economic uncertainty and increased volatility due to duties on imported goods that have raised costs for both retailers and consumers, the agency recalls.
In addition, due to the fact that during the U.S. government shutdown there were no official statistics on the state of the U.S. economy, holiday sales may become a source of alternative data for the Fed, Barron's believes . Typically on Black Friday, shoppers focus on durable or non-essential consumer goods (such as televisions), the publication said. But a slowing economy could push them toward basic goods. If people are skimping on food and necessities, that would be a red flag, Barron's notes.
In September, Salesforce warned that online sales growth in the U.S. during the 2025 holiday season would slow compared to 2024. It expected them to add 2.1% from Nov. 1 to Dec. 31, rising to $288 billion. Last year, growth was 4% and total online spending was $282 billion.
Judging by the latest data from retailers, shoppers are willing to buy gifts, electronics, clothing and other products at good discounts despite generally weak sentiment, according to Reuters. According to a National Retail Federation forecast announced earlier this week, 186.9 million people are expected to shop in the five days from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday, more than ever before. But consumers are more likely to cut back on spending as there are fewer great deals, the agency reported.
Context
Last week, Walmart, the largest U.S. retailer, raised its annual revenue forecast for the second consecutive quarter, which may indicate that concerns about a slowdown in consumer activity amid a mixed situation in the labor market and inflation have abated. Walmart's results are considered an indicator of the overall health of the American consumer.
This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor
