Pfizer reveals data on obesity drug. Why are analysts and the market disappointed?

Pfizer has released data on the efficacy of its new obesity drug, which it gained with the purchase of Metsera at the end of 2025. However, the information was too Ma for investors and analysts to gauge the company's success against market leaders Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly. Pfizer shares were down 5% despite reporting earnings above expectations.

Results of a study of the weight-loss drug VESPER-3 showed that patients lost an average of up to 12.3% of their weight compared to those taking a placebo after 28 weeks, Pfizer said Feb. 3. Such data were obtained at the end of phase 2b - meaning the middle phase of the trial.

Pfizer acquired the rights to the drug as part of a $10 billion deal to buy Metsera, winning a battle for the company from Novo Nordisk, one of the market leaders in weight loss drugs. The data released Tuesday were the first trial results since the deal was finalized, Bloomberg notes.

Pfizer shares fell by 5.2% at the beginning of trading on February 3. However, then the securities managed to recover some of the losses.

The presented results made investors wonder whether the expensive acquisition of Metsera would be justified, Bloomberg wrote. Given that no new Pfizer drugs are expected to be approved in 2026 and that sales of products against Covid-19 are declining, market participants pinned their hopes on the success of the company's experimental drugs, the agency noted. However, the data that Pfizer disclosed was not enough for investors to understand what place this new drug will occupy in the rapidly changing anti-obesity market, which is now dominated by Pfizer's rivals Novo Nordisk A/S and Eli Lilly & Co, Bloomberg said.

"There are already two well-established companies owning this market," said Mizuho healthcare analyst Jared Holtz in a Bloomberg statement. To gain a foothold in this segment, Holtz said, Pfizer had to offer a product with a higher efficacy or safety profile.

"The data presented today may leave a lot to be desired from a competitive perspective," Evercore ISI analyst Umer Raffat said in a note cited by Bloomberg. Additional data, including combinations with other drugs expected later this year, are increasingly significant, the analyst added.

Also on Tuesday, Pfizer reported revenues of $17.6 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025 - down 3% compared to the same period in 2024. At the same time, the company exceeded sales forecasts of $16.85 billion, MarketWatch writes, citing FactSet data.

Pfizer's results were better than expected thanks to sales of popular drugs, which partially offset a significant drop in revenue from the vaccine and tablets against Covid-19, Bloomberg said. The company also reaffirmed its 2026 revenue outlook in a range of $59.5 billion to $62.5 billion, in line with analysts' average expectation of $61 billion, the agency added.

At the same time, a number of Pfizer's key drugs are under pressure. Prevnar (a vaccine to prevent pneumonia, meningitis and otitis media) and Vyndaqel (used for cardiomyopathy) are facing competition, and products against Covid-19 no longer have the appeal they had at the peak of the pandemic, Bloomberg writes. Prices for the best-selling Eliquis (which helps with cardiovascular disease) may fall due to government regulation in the United States, the agency noted.

Pfizer shares are up 2.6% since the beginning of 2026 (as of the close of trading on February 2). Most analysts advise holding the stock (16 Hold ratings), with 11 recommending Buy (Buy and Overweight) and only one recommending Sell (Sell). The average target price is $28.69, up 7.6% from the current price target.

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor