U.S. economic growth in the third quarter exceeded expectations. What will happen next?

The delayed data released shows that the US economy experienced solid growth in the third quarter of 2025. Such results were achieved at the expense of consumer spending and business investment. However, since then, Reuters points out, the growth rate has likely slowed - amid the recent U.S. government shutdown and the rising cost of living.

According to a preliminary estimate, U.S. real GDP grew at a 4.3% annualized rate in the third quarter of 2025 (July, August and September), the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported. That's above forecasts by economists polled by Reuters, who had anticipated a 3.3% increase, a late data release delayed by the 43-day government shutdown. By comparison, U.S. GDP grew 3.8% in the second quarter of 2025.

The main U.S. stock indices show different dynamics. Futures on the S&P 500 index fell by 0.05%. Contracts on the blue-chip index Dow Jones fell by about 0.08%, and the "technological" Nasdaq Composite - by 0.03%. The yield on 10-year Treasury bonds remained virtually unchanged at 4.16% after the publication of U.S. GDP data, Bloomberg writes. The dollar fell 0.3%, and, apparently, it is waiting for the worst year since 2017, the agency points out. Gold and silver are trading at historic highs.

Large businesses have generally managed to withstand the blow from the large-scale duties imposed by US President Donald Trump, which led to rising costs, and are investing in artificial intelligence, thereby strengthening the foundation of the economy, economists note, Reuters writes. At the same time, small companies have been hit much harder, they add.

The U.S. economy grew thanks to robust consumer spending and business investment, Reuters notes. In the third quarter, the U.S. economy was supported by a reduction in imports, which helped reduce the trade deficit. And much of the acceleration in consumer spending was also due to the excitement surrounding the purchase of electric cars ahead of the September 30 expiration of tax credits for their buyers.

But the data, Reuters reminds us, due to the 43-day U.S. government shutdown, were released late and are now out of date. They confirm what economists call a K-shaped economy, the agency continues: higher-income households are feeling robust, while middle- and low-income families are barely hanging on. Surveys show that consumer spending - the engine of the economy - is largely provided by wealthy households, helped by a rising stock market that is increasing their wealth, Reuters points out.

The Bank of America Institute report cited by the agency also noted that low-income households are living "from paycheck to paycheck" and this year have spent an increasing portion of their money on groceries instead of going to restaurants. They have also cut back on spending on clothing, air travel and hotels, reflecting their limited options amid high inflation.

"It was a good quarter, but that result will not be sustained in the fourth quarter. Household budgets are being squeezed: on average, families are barely keeping afloat in terms of real wage growth," Brian Bethune, professor of economics at Boston College, noted in a Reuters commentary.

The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated that the recent government shutdown in America could reduce the country's GDP in the fourth quarter by 1-2 percentage points. In this case, the office believes that most of the decline in GDP over time will be compensated, but from $7 billion to $14 billion of the economy will not be able to return, writes Reuters.

Households also face rising utility bills amid the rapid expansion of data centers for artificial intelligence and cloud computing, which increases demand for electricity, the agency points out. In addition, some Americans may face a sharp increase in health insurance premiums in 2026, Reuters recalls.

"The boom in AI is masking the negative effects of the trade war. Growth will slow further in the fourth quarter due to the government shutdown, after which a recovery is expected in the new year," said Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets.

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor