The U.S. economy is on a K-shaped trajectory. Growth is being fueled by the spending of affluent consumers, who are getting richer and richer thanks to a rebound in capital markets. And the poor are getting richer and having to cut back on their spending. It's like a tower of jenga blocks, where many of the blocks at the bottom have been removed, and the upper blocks - the last pillar of the economy - could be hit by a stock market downturn.

The Fragile Tower: Why 2026 could be a pivotal year for the K-shaped U.S. economy 

Ramaco Resources, Inc.

Organogenesis Holdings Inc.

NVIDIA Corporation

UiPath Inc.

Sable Offshore Corp.

ServiceNow, Inc.

Asana, Inc.

Viking Therapeutics, Inc.

Novo Nordisk A/S

Daily review and forecast of events on the U.S. stock market from Mikhail Denislamov, Deputy Director of Freedom Capital Markets Research.

New York morning: shortened trading on Christmas Eve will go quietly

Despite the growth of the U.S. economy, market participants continue to bet on the weakening of the U.S. currency

The dollar is approaching its worst year since 2017. Why is the market betting against it?

The delayed data released shows that the US economy experienced solid growth in the third quarter of 2025. Such results were achieved at the expense of consumer spending and business investment. However, since then, Reuters <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-economic-growth-likely-remained-strong-third-quarter-2025-12-23/">points out</a>, the growth rate has likely slowed - amid the recent U.S. government shutdown and the rising cost of living.

U.S. economic growth in the third quarter exceeded expectations. What will happen next?

They are related to AI and the threat to the Fed's independence, among other things 

Apollo named the top five macroeconomic and market risks in 2026

The year 2025 abruptly reversed the dynamics of the currency market: the dollar's exchange rate against the currencies of major U.S. trading partners, which had risen by 40% between 2010 and 2024, fell sharply. The first half of the year was marked by the strongest dollar <a href="https://www.morganstanley.com/insights/articles/us-dollar-declines">depreciation</a> in half a century, down 11% since 1973. In the following months, the nominal effective exchange rate <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1NxFg">recovered</a> about a quarter of the decline, while the real exchange rate <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RBUSBIS">remained</a> roughly flat at the end of the first half of the year.

The dollar under Trump has suffered its strongest decline in half a century. This may not be the end 

The increase in the forecast is attributed to Trump's duties and the weak dollar, but the effect will not last long

The IMF has improved its forecast for global GDP. Why did it warn of a "bleak outlook"?

Wells Fargo & Company

Citigroup Inc.

The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.

JPMorgan CEO warned that uncertainty in markets remains high

"The economy has been resilient": how did the four major US banks report and what about stocks?

JPMorgan Chase & Co.

UBS Group AG

Morgan Stanley

Freedom Holdings Corp.

The current funding period for U.S. government operations expires Sept. 30

'Serious scars on the economy': what Wall Street is saying about the risks of a US shutdown

The U.S. economy grew at an annualized rate of 3.8% in the second quarter, up from the previous estimate of 3.3%, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)<a href="https://www.bea.gov/?utm_source=chatgpt.com"> reported</a>. The revised pace was the fastest since the third quarter of 2023, Reuters<a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/us-second-quarter-gdp-growth-revised-sharply-higher-2025-09-25/"> calculated</a>. Analysts surveyed by the agency had expected no change. According to the Ministry of Trade, the main drivers for GDP were a reduction in the trade deficit amid a fall in imports and growth in consumer spending and business investment.

The U.S. economy grew at its fastest pace in nearly two years. How is Wall Street reacting?

By the end of August, the average duty rate on U.S. imports had reached its highest level since the height of the Great Depression in 1933

The economy has not yet felt the impact of US duties, the OECD said. When will the effect be felt?

Broadcom Inc.

Alphabet Inc.

The three major U.S. stock indices moved sharply to the downside after hitting new records at the start of trading on September 5. After the opening of the stock exchanges, investors' optimism was linked to the prospects of Fed rate cuts amid weak employment data for August. However, as the trading session progressed, these hopes were replaced by concerns about a slowdown in the US economy and a possible recession.

USA Economy