The average target price of BUD is 76 and suggests 11% upside potential. Usually, this means a HOLD recommendation among investment firms. This neutral recommendation suggests no significant price movement, up or down, in the next 12 months. The most optimistic analyst has a target price of 88.0. This translates into 28% upside potential in the best case. On the other hand, the most pessimistic analyst has a target price of 65.0. This is equivalent to 6% downside potential in the worst case. 

Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV engages in the production, distribution, and sale of beer, alcoholic beverages, and soft drinks worldwide. It offers a portfolio of approximately 500 beer brands, which primarily include Budweiser, Corona, and Stella Artois; Beck's, Hoegaarden, Leffe, and Michelob Ultra; and Aguila, Antarctica, Bud Light, Brahma, Cass, Castle, Castle Lite, Cristal, Harbin, Jupiler, Modelo Especial, Quilmes, Victoria, Sedrin, and Skol brands. The company was founded in 1366 and is headquartered in Leuven, Belgium.

Belgium

Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV

Consumer Defensive

The company has a track record of regular dividend payments. It has paid dividends in each of the past ten years. Dividend per share (DPS) has grown yearly, and there is a clear trend. In the past 12 months, the dividend yield has been moderate and on par with its peers. On average, the company pays dividends annually. 

BUD reported revenue of USD 58 848mn in the last 12 months, down 2% from FY24. At the same time, the dynamics of cash flow, as measured by free cash flow (FCF), were drastically different. EPS grew 16% from FY24 to USD 3.90. Market expects EPS to reach USD 3.34 in FY25.

Over the last six months, the stock performance has varied, with an increase following a drop. The stock's price trend wasn't definitive when matched against its global counterparts from the same sector and industry (as depicted above). Over the past six months the stock has exceeded the performance of this peer group by 35ppts and its growth decelerated by 1ppts in the past month. This is equally valid for peers from the same country and industry. Given the stock's valuation versus its peers, its total price movement is mildly favourable.

The company has reported good EBITDA margins compared to its global peers in recent years. EBITDA margin amounted to 28.0% in the last 12 months, up from 26.1% in FY23. 

Historically, BUD has reported good net margins compared to its global peers. Specifically, in the last 12 months, this metric equalled 11.7%, a growth from 9.0% in FY23. 

Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV reported a return on equity (RoE) of 8.6% in the last 12 months, up from 6.9% in FY23. The market consensus projects an RoE of 7.2% in FY24, again behind its peers. 

Another important profitability metric, return on assets (RoA), amounted to 3.2% in the last 12 months, an increase from 2.5% in FY23. The market analysts predict that RoA will be 2.7% in FY24, again weaker than its peers. 

In the last 12 months, the return on capital employed (RoCE) grew to 3.9%, below the peers. The consensus estimate for FY24 for RoCE is 7.3%, again behind the peers. 

The ratio of return on invested capital (RoIC) to the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) has been 0.9 in the past several years. This ratio implies a poor shareholder value creation. 

The institutional, legal, and compliance risks associated with the company's country are minimal. In combination with stringent business standards, shareholder rights are very highly protected.

BUD boasts high trading liquidity. The average private investor can sell his common position in the stock immediately. Liquidity is usually very stable and is unfavourable on the days with the lowest activity. The trading volume mostly stays the same even under highly turbulent market conditions. 

No other major risks have been identified.

The risk of default is high. Among the negative credit factors, we point to slow historical revenue growth, negligible return on capital, excessive margin volatility, and weak debt servicing capacity. We note robust profitability, among the positive credit factors. 

In highly turbulent market conditions, BUD is not volatile. In other words, the stock will fall far less than the index in times of extreme market volatility or shocking company news. Standalone, the worst-day losses (less than 1% of the time) will likely be very low. 

In normal market circumstances, BUD is not volatile. Put differently, without outstanding market volatility or shocking company news, the stock's price will stay within a narrow range. The stock's losses on its worst days (less than 1-5% of the time) will range from very low to negligible. 

From both historical and forecast perspectives, the stock is fairly priced compared to similar stocks. In particular, the stock is reasonably priced on P/E, of fair value on EV/EBITDA, trading at neutral levels on P/FCF. 

Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV

$ 69.25

6

Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV

$ 69.25

6

Risk factor

Profitability factor

Risk / Profitability

Risk factor

Profitability factor

$ 69.25

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