AleAnna, Inc., a natural gas resource company, focuses on delivering critical natural gas supplies in Italy. It operates through onshore conventional natural gas exploration and renewable natural gas development. The company was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.

AleAnna, Inc.

Energy

The company does not pay dividends at all, or it pays them sporadically. There have only been a few years with dividend payments in the past ten years. 

Over the past six months, the stock has consistently fallen, resulting in a 7% total decrease. When measured against its worldwide peers from the same industry (as shown above), the stock has been weaker, underperforming by 6ppts. This is equally valid for peers from the same country and industry. Given the stock's valuation versus its peers, its total price movement is slightly unfavourable.

The company has reported very poor EBITDA margins compared to its global peers in recent years. EBITDA margin amounted to -421.9% in the last 12 months, a decline from -418.3% in FY23. 

Another important profitability metric, return on assets (RoA), amounted to -14.9% in the last 12 months, an increase from -21.3% in FY23. 

AleAnna, Inc. reported a return on equity (RoE) of 6.3% in the last 12 months, down from 12.5% in FY23. 

In the last 12 months, the return on capital employed (RoCE) grew to -15.3%, below the peers. 

The ratio of return on invested capital (RoIC) to the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) has been 1.9 in the past several years. This ratio implies a good shareholder value creation. 

The institutional, legal, and compliance risks associated with the company's country are minimal. In combination with stringent business standards, shareholder rights are very highly protected.

ANNA has very poor trading liquidity. It will take several trading days for the average private investor to sell a common position under normal market conditions. Liquidity is very unstable and becomes extremely unfavourable on the days with the lowest activity. However, under highly turbulent market conditions, the trading volume tends to improve significantly. Another factor to consider is the substantial number of days with zero trading volumes, i.e., without any ability to sell a position. The stock has a very small market capitalisation, which usually makes its trading liquidity erratic and unpredictable. 

No other major risks have been identified.

The risk of default is high. Among the negative credit factors, we point to slow historical revenue growth, bleak profitability, negligible return on capital, and poor working capital management. We note low margin volatility and an favourable capital structure, among the positive credit factors. 

In highly turbulent market conditions, ANNA is exceptionally volatile. In other words, the stock will be among the worst-performers in times of extreme market volatility or shocking company news. Standalone, the worst-day losses (less than 1% of the time) will likely be critical. 

In normal market circumstances, ANNA is exceptionally volatile. Put differently, without outstanding market volatility or shocking company news, the stock's price will change quite unpredictably. The stock's losses on its worst days (less than 1-5% of the time) will range from significant to immense. 

Based on key historical and expected multiples, the stock is greatly overvalued relative to its peers. 

AleAnna, Inc.

$ 6.3

1

AleAnna, Inc.

$ 6.3

1

Risk factor

Profitability factor

Risk / Profitability

Risk factor

Profitability factor

$ 6.3

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