The average target price of JOBY is 7.9 and suggests 11% downside potential. Usually, this means a SELL recommendation among investment firms, or a recommendation to decrease one's position in this instrument in the next 12 months. The most optimistic analyst has a target price of 12.0. This translates into 35% upside potential in the best case. On the other hand, the most pessimistic analyst has a target price of 4.0. This is equivalent to 55% downside potential in the worst case. 

Joby Aviation, Inc., a vertically integrated air mobility company, engages in building an electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft optimized to deliver air transportation as a service. It intends to build an aerial ridesharing service. The company was founded in 2009 and is headquartered in Santa Cruz, California.

Joby Aviation, Inc.

Industrials

The company does not pay dividends at all, or it pays them sporadically. There have only been a few years with dividend payments in the past ten years. 

JOBY reported revenue of USD 0mn in the last 12 months, down 18% from FY24. The dynamics of cash flow, as measure by free cash flow (FCF), were rather similar. EPS fell 3% from FY24 to USD -0.85. Market expects EPS to reach USD -0.72 in FY25.

The stock's performance has been mixed in the past six months, with growth following a decline. There is no clear price trend compared to its global peers from the same sector and industry (as shown above). It has underperformed this peer group by 12ppts over six months and grown 1ppts faster in the past month. This is largely true for peers from the same country and sector. With respect to the stock's valuation against its peers, its overall price performance is neutral.

The company has reported very poor EBITDA margins compared to its global peers in recent years. EBITDA margin amounted to -520670.3% in the last 12 months, a decline from -42790.8% in FY23. 

Historically, JOBY has reported very poor net margins compared to its global peers. Specifically, in the last 12 months, this metric equalled -536804.5%, down from -49714.1% in FY23. 

Joby Aviation, Inc. reported a return on equity (RoE) of -62.9% in the last 12 months, down from -46.7% in FY23. The market consensus projects an RoE of -45.0% in FY24, again behind its peers. 

Another important profitability metric, return on assets (RoA), amounted to -50.6% in the last 12 months, a decrease from -40.0% in FY23. The market analysts predict that RoA will be -36.6% in FY24, again weaker than its peers. 

In the last 12 months, the return on capital employed (RoCE) declined to -52.7%, below the peers. The consensus estimate for FY24 for RoCE is -35.0%, again behind the peers. 

The ratio of return on invested capital (RoIC) to the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) has been -3.2 in the past several years. This ratio implies a fragile shareholder value creation. 

The institutional, legal, and compliance risks associated with the company's country are minimal. In combination with stringent business standards, shareholder rights are very highly protected.

JOBY boasts high trading liquidity. The average private investor can sell his common position in the stock immediately. Liquidity is usually stable and remains mildly favourable on the days with the lowest activity. The trading volume mostly stays the same even under highly turbulent market conditions. 

No other major risks have been identified.

The risk of default is high. Among the negative credit factors, we point to slow historical revenue growth, bleak profitability, negligible return on capital, poor working capital management, inadequate interest coverage, and poor cash flow generation. We note low margin volatility and an favourable capital structure, among the positive credit factors. 

In highly turbulent market conditions, JOBY is exceptionally volatile. In other words, the stock will be among the worst-performers in times of extreme market volatility or shocking company news. Standalone, the worst-day losses (less than 1% of the time) will likely be critical. 

In normal market circumstances, JOBY is exceptionally volatile. Put differently, without outstanding market volatility or shocking company news, the stock's price will change quite unpredictably. The stock's losses on its worst days (less than 1-5% of the time) will range from critical to immense. 

Based on key historical and expected multiples, the stock is greatly overvalued relative to its peers. In particular, the stock is 'expensive' on EV/EBITDA. 

Joby Aviation, Inc.

$ 6.88

2

Joby Aviation, Inc.

$ 6.88

2

Risk factor

Profitability factor

Risk / Profitability

About

About

Risk factor

Profitability factor

$ 6.88

About

About

Joby Aviation, Inc.

$ 6.88

2

Joby Aviation, Inc.

$ 6.88

2

Risk factor

Profitability factor

Risk / Profitability

About

About

Risk factor

Profitability factor

$ 6.88

About

About

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