The average target price of MLYS is 38 and suggests 185% upside potential. Usually, this means a BUY recommendation among investment firms, or a recommendation to increase one's position in this instrument in the next 12 months. The most optimistic analyst has a target price of 52.0. This translates into 290% upside potential in the best case. On the other hand, the most pessimistic analyst has a target price of 26.0. This suggests 95% upside potential. Even the most pessimistic analyst believes there will be stock growth. 

Mineralys Therapeutics, Inc., a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company that develops therapies for the treatment of hypertension and associated cardiovascular diseases. It clinical-stage product candidate is lorundrostat, a proprietary, orally administered, highly selective aldosterone synthase inhibitor for the treatment of patients with uncontrolled or resistant hypertension. The company was incorporated in 2019 and is headquartered in Radnor, Pennsylvania.

Mineralys Therapeutics, Inc.

Healthcare

The company does not pay dividends at all, or it pays them sporadically. There have only been a few years with dividend payments in the past ten years. 

MLYS reported revenue of USD 0mn in the last 12 months, down 0% from FY23. The dynamics of cash flow, as measure by free cash flow (FCF), were rather similar. EPS grew 84% from FY23 to USD -3.66. Market expects EPS to reach USD -3.71 in FY25.

The stock's performance has been mixed in the past six months, with growth following a decline. There is no clear price trend compared to its global peers from the same sector and industry (as shown above). The stock has outperformed this peer group by 12ppts over past six months and grown 17ppts slower in the past month. This is largely true for peers from the same country and sector. With respect to the stock's valuation against its peers, its overall price performance is 'fair'.

In the last 12 months, the return on capital employed (RoCE) declined to -82.2%, below the peers. 

Mineralys Therapeutics, Inc. reported a return on equity (RoE) of -82.2% in the last 12 months, down from -76.1% in FY23. The market consensus projects an RoE of -48.6% in FY24, again behind its peers. 

Another important profitability metric, return on assets (RoA), amounted to -77.7% in the last 12 months, a decrease from -39.3% in FY23. The market analysts predict that RoA will be -46.6% in FY24, again weaker than its peers. 

The ratio of return on invested capital (RoIC) to the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) has been -4.8 in the past several years. This ratio implies a fragile shareholder value creation. 

The institutional, legal, and compliance risks associated with the company's country are minimal. In combination with stringent business standards, shareholder rights are very highly protected.

MLYS has below average trading liquidity. The average private investor can sell his common position in the stock almost immediately. Liquidity is very unstable and is average on the days with the lowest activity. The trading volume mostly stays the same even under highly turbulent market conditions. The stock has a small market capitalisation, which usually makes its trading liquidity erratic and unpredictable. 

No other major risks have been identified.

The risk of default is very high. Among the negative credit factors and we point to negligible return on capital, inadequate interest coverage.

In highly turbulent market conditions, MLYS is exceptionally volatile. In other words, the stock will be among the worst-performers in times of extreme market volatility or shocking company news. Standalone, the worst-day losses (less than 1% of the time) will likely be critical. 

In normal market circumstances, MLYS is exceptionally volatile. Put differently, without outstanding market volatility or shocking company news, the stock's price will change quite unpredictably. The stock's losses on its worst days (less than 1-5% of the time) will range from critical to immense. 

Based on key historical and expected multiples, the stock is overvalued relative to its peers. 

Mineralys Therapeutics, Inc.

$ 13.34

3

Mineralys Therapeutics, Inc.

$ 13.34

3

Risk factor

Profitability factor

Risk / Profitability

Risk factor

Profitability factor

$ 13.34

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