The average target price of NYF.ST is 115 and suggests 27% upside potential. Usually, this means a BUY recommendation among investment firms, or a recommendation to increase one's position in this instrument in the next 12 months. The most optimistic analyst has a target price of 115.0. This translates into 27% upside potential in the best case. On the other hand, the most pessimistic analyst has a target price of 115.0. This suggests 27% upside potential. Even the most pessimistic analyst believes there will be stock growth. 

Nyfosa AB (publ), a transaction-intensive real estate company, acquires, manages, improves, and sells properties in Sweden and Finland. Its property portfolio includes offices, logistics, and warehouse properties, as well as retail properties. As of December 31, 2021, the company had a portfolio of 447 properties with a leasable area of 2,780,000 square meters. Nyfosa AB (publ) was founded in 2009 and is based in Nacka, Sweden.

Sweden

Nyfosa AB (publ)

Real Estate

The company tries to pay dividends regularly but only sometimes does so. It has paid dividends in roughly half the past ten years. Dividend per share (DPS) has grown yearly, but the dynamics are unclear. In the past 12 months, the dividend yield has barely been above zero and was substantially below that of its peers. On average, the company pays dividends twice a year. 

NYF.ST reported revenue of SEK 3 675mn in the last 12 months, up 3% from FY23. At the same time, the dynamics of cash flow, as measured by free cash flow (FCF), were drastically different. Market expects EPS to reach SEK 5.66 in FY25.

Over the last six months, the stock performance has varied, with an increase following a drop. The stock's price trend wasn't definitive when matched against its global counterparts from the same sector and industry (as depicted above). Within the past six months, its performance has trailed this peer group's by 13ppts and its growth accelerated by 10ppts in the past month. This is equally valid for peers from the same country and industry. Given the stock's valuation versus its peers, its total price movement is neither favourable nor unfavourable.

The company has reported very strong EBITDA margins compared to its global peers in recent years. EBITDA margin amounted to 64.5% in the last 12 months, up from 5.8% in FY23. 

Historically, NYF.ST has reported very strong net margins compared to its global peers. Specifically, in the last 12 months, this metric equalled 2.7%, a growth from -18.0% in FY23. 

In the last 12 months, the return on capital employed (RoCE) grew to 0.2%, below the peers. The consensus estimate for FY24 for RoCE is 8.0%, however, this time ahead of the peers. 

Nyfosa AB (publ) reported a return on equity (RoE) of 0.6% in the last 12 months, up from -3.7% in FY23. The market consensus projects an RoE of -4.9% in FY24, again behind its peers. 

Another important profitability metric, return on assets (RoA), amounted to 0.2% in the last 12 months, an increase from -1.4% in FY23. The market analysts predict that RoA will be -1.8% in FY24, again weaker than its peers. 

The ratio of return on invested capital (RoIC) to the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) has been 0.2 in the past several years. This ratio implies a weak shareholder value creation. 

The institutional, legal, and compliance risks associated with the company's country are minimal. In combination with stringent business standards, shareholder rights are very highly protected.

NYF.ST boasts high trading liquidity. The average private investor can sell his common position in the stock almost immediately. Liquidity is usually quite stable and is unfavourable on the days with the lowest activity. However, under highly turbulent market conditions, the trading volume tends to improve significantly. 

No other major risks have been identified.

The risk of default is high. Among the negative credit factors, we point to weak positions in its industry, slow historical revenue growth, negligible return on capital, excessive margin volatility, weak debt servicing capacity, inadequate interest coverage, poor cash flow generation, and an unfavourable capital structure. We note robust profitability, among the positive credit factors. 

In highly turbulent market conditions, NYF.ST is not overly volatile. In other words, the stock will fall less than the index in times of extreme market volatility or shocking company news. Standalone, the worst-day losses (less than 1% of the time) will likely be low. 

In normal market circumstances, NYF.ST is as volatile as an index. Put differently, without outstanding market volatility or shocking company news, the stock's price will move with the index. The stock's losses on its worst days (less than 1-5% of the time) will range from low to mild. We would also like to highlight the mild intraday volatility of the instrument. 

From both historical and forecast perspectives, the stock is slightly overpriced compared to similar stocks. In particular, the stock is reasonably priced on P/E, of fair value on EV/EBITDA, trading at neutral levels on P/FCF. 

Nyfosa AB (publ)

SEK 90.6

4

Nyfosa AB (publ)

SEK 90.6

4

Risk factor

Profitability factor

Risk / Profitability

Risk factor

Profitability factor

SEK 90.6

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