Vivani Medical, Inc., a clinical stage company, develops various implants that treat chronic diseases with high unmet medical need. It engages in developing a portfolio of miniature drug implants to deliver minimally fluctuating drug profiles; and implantable visual prostheses devices to deliver useful artificial vision to blind individuals. The company is headquartered in Emeryville, California.

Vivani Medical, Inc.

Healthcare

The company does not pay dividends at all, or it pays them sporadically. There have only been a few years with dividend payments in the past ten years. 

VANI reported revenue of USD 0mn in the last 12 months, down 0% from FY24. The dynamics of cash flow, as measure by free cash flow (FCF), were rather similar. EPS fell 2% from FY24 to USD -0.43. Market expects EPS to reach USD -0.42 in FY25.

The stock's performance has been mixed in the past six months, with growth following a decline. There is no clear price trend compared to its global peers from the same sector and industry (as shown above). The stock has outperformed this peer group by 15ppts over past six months and grown 2ppts faster in the past month. This is largely true for peers from the same country and sector. With respect to the stock's valuation against its peers, its overall price performance is 'fair'.

Vivani Medical, Inc. reported a return on equity (RoE) of -146.7% in the last 12 months, down from -122.2% in FY23. The market consensus projects an RoE of -97.6% in FY24, again behind its peers. 

In the last 12 months, the return on capital employed (RoCE) declined to -68.5%, below the peers. The consensus estimate for FY24 for RoCE is -53.7%, again behind the peers. 

Another important profitability metric, return on assets (RoA), amounted to -58.5% in the last 12 months, a decrease from -55.4% in FY23. The market analysts predict that RoA will be -44.2% in FY24, again weaker than its peers. 

The ratio of return on invested capital (RoIC) to the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) has been -5.3 in the past several years. This ratio implies a fragile shareholder value creation. 

The institutional, legal, and compliance risks associated with the company's country are minimal. In combination with stringent business standards, shareholder rights are very highly protected.

VANI has very poor trading liquidity. It will take several trading days for the average private investor to sell a common position under normal market conditions. Liquidity may be unstable and is unfavourable on the days with the lowest activity. The trading volume mostly stays the same even under highly turbulent market conditions. The stock has a tiny market capitalisation, which usually makes its trading liquidity erratic and unpredictable. 

No other major risks have been identified.

The risk of default is high. Among the negative credit factors, we point to bleak profitability, negligible return on capital, poor working capital management, poor cash flow generation, and an unfavourable capital structure. We note resilient historical revenue growth and low margin volatility, among the positive credit factors. 

In highly turbulent market conditions, VANI is exceptionally volatile. In other words, the stock will be among the worst-performers in times of extreme market volatility or shocking company news. Standalone, the worst-day losses (less than 1% of the time) will likely be critical. 

In normal market circumstances, VANI is exceptionally volatile. Put differently, without outstanding market volatility or shocking company news, the stock's price will change quite unpredictably. The stock's losses on its worst days (less than 1-5% of the time) will range from critical to immense. 

Based on key historical and expected multiples, the stock is greatly overvalued relative to its peers. 

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Vivani Medical, Inc.

$ 1.34

2

Vivani Medical, Inc.

$ 1.34

2

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$ 1.34

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