The average target price of VG is 16 and suggests 7% upside potential. Usually, this means a HOLD recommendation among investment firms. This neutral recommendation suggests no significant price movement, up or down, in the next 12 months. The most optimistic analyst has a target price of 21.0. This translates into 37% upside potential in the best case. On the other hand, the most pessimistic analyst has a target price of 11.0. This is equivalent to 28% downside potential in the worst case. 

Venture Global, Inc. supplies natural gas products. The Company specializes in commissioning, constructing, and developing natural gas liquefaction and export projects.

Venture Global, Inc.

Energy

The company pays dividends on rare occasions. There have only been a few years with dividend payments in the past ten years. Dividend per share (DPS) has grown yearly, but the dynamics are unclear. In the past 12 months, the dividend yield has barely been above zero and was substantially below that of its peers. 

VG reported revenue of USD 1 435mn in the last 12 months, up 2% from FY21. The dynamics of cash flow, as measure by free cash flow (FCF), were rather similar. EPS grew 68% from FY21 to USD -0.16.

Over the last six months, the stock performance has varied, with an increase following a drop. The stock's price trend wasn't definitive when matched against its global counterparts from the same sector and industry (as depicted above). Within the past six months, its performance has trailed this peer group's by 24ppts and its growth decelerated by 3ppts in the past month. This is equally valid for peers from the same country and industry. Given the stock's valuation versus its peers, its total price movement is mildly favourable.

The ratio of return on invested capital (RoIC) to the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) has been 5.5 in the past several years. This ratio implies a excellent shareholder value creation. 

The institutional, legal, and compliance risks associated with the company's country are minimal. In combination with stringent business standards, shareholder rights are very highly protected.

VG has above average trading liquidity. The average private investor can sell his common position in the stock immediately. Liquidity is usually quite stable and is average on the days with the lowest activity. The trading volume mostly stays the same even under highly turbulent market conditions. 

No other major risks have been identified.

The risk of default is moderate. We note resilient historical revenue growth, robust profitability, and solid cash flow generation, among the positive credit factors. Among the negative credit factors, we point to negligible return on capital, excessive margin volatility, poor working capital management, and an unfavourable capital structure.

In highly turbulent market conditions, VG is exceptionally volatile. In other words, the stock will be among the worst-performers in times of extreme market volatility or shocking company news. Standalone, the worst-day losses (less than 1% of the time) will likely be critical. 

In normal market circumstances, VG is exceptionally volatile. Put differently, without outstanding market volatility or shocking company news, the stock's price will change quite unpredictably. The stock's losses on its worst days (less than 1-5% of the time) will range from significant to immense. 

From both historical and forecast perspectives, the stock is slightly overpriced compared to similar stocks. In particular, the stock is reasonably priced on P/E, of fair value on EV/EBITD. 

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Venture Global, Inc.

$ 15.67

3

Venture Global, Inc.

$ 15.67

3

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Risk factor

Profitability factor

$ 15.67

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