8 "crazy" Saxo forecasts that came true. What do analysts expect in 2026?

Analysts at Denmark's Saxo Bank annually publish a list of "unlikely but highly influential events that may well happen". The bank calls its forecast "crazy". But as practice and Saxo's analysis shows - even "unlikely", according to experts, events can be realized. Saxo selected 8 "outrageous" forecasts that eventually came true. And these are:

1. Forecast 2022: gold soars to $3000. Back in 2022, Saxo Bank analyst Ole S. Hansen predicted that the price of gold would "skyrocket" to $3000 next year because central banks would not be able to control inflation. The prediction was made for 2023, and didn't come true then. But in March 2025, after a spectacular rise in recent years, the price of gold did hit the $3000 mark.

2. Prediction 2025: "Trump 2.0 undermines the US dollar". When Donald Trump took office for the second time, one of Saxo analyst Joe J. Hardy's "outrageous" predictions was that the new president would "undermine" the dollar by imposing significant duties. And from the highs of early 2025, by the end of the year, the US dollar had indeed fallen more than 10%.

3. Prediction 2025: Nvidia's capitalization will double Apple's market value. Although, according to current data, the forecast did not come true, thanks to its breakthrough AI chips, at one point Nvidia's market value was indeed almost 50% higher than the iPhone maker's capitalization, writes Saxo.

4. Forecast 2022: the plan to divest from fossil fuels is postponed. Back in early 2022, Ole S. Hansen wrote that policymakers would postpone climate targets and support fossil energy investments to combat inflation and risks of social discontent, while reconsidering the path to a low-carbon future. The general idea of the forecast eventually came true, but was fueled by the unforeseen conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Saxo notes.

5. Forecast 2018: volatility surge after the "lightning crash" in stock markets. The events of February 2018, dubbed "Volmageddon" (from the words volatility and Armageddon), nearly wiped out funds that were playing down volatility. Later in 2018, the market tried to point out to the Fed that it was making a mistake by raising rates despite a deteriorating economy. This led to a 20% sell-off from the October 2018 peak to the intraday low on December 26, 2018. And the sharpest moves came during the Christmas holiday period when liquidity in the market was significantly reduced.

6. Forecast 2017: huge bitcoin growth amid the rise of cryptocurrencies. The justification for this forecast in Saxo at the time called the desire of investors to get away from the currencies of central banks and excessive spending of Donald Trump's administration, which in the end was to lead to the growth of the U.S. national debt and a rapid increase in inflation. In the end, the forecast didn't just come true, but surpassed itself: the price of bitcoin rose from $800 to nearly $20,000 at its 2017 peak. But the real growth, Saxo acknowledged, had more to do with speculation than the Trump-era macroeconomics. Nevertheless, subsequent surges in the crypto market, including bitcoin's surge in 2021, have confirmed the logic of the forecast.

7. 2015 prediction: Brexit in 2017. Analysts at SaxoStrats wrote that the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) will win 25% of the vote in the UK general election on Ma 7, 2015 and become the third largest party in the British Parliament. UKIP would then enter a coalition with David Cameron's Conservatives and push for a planned referendum on the UK's membership of the EU in 2017. In time, the forecast was wrong, but the circumstances themselves turned out to be very close to reality.

8. 2013 forecast: gold corrects to $1200 an ounce. "Our forecast of $1200 at the time of publication meant a price drop of about a third," said analyst Ole S. Hansen. He was then the first to give a "crazy" but completely accurate forecast. In 2013, gold prices did indeed correct and even fell below $1200 per ounce: "As investors increasingly turned their attention to stocks and the dollar," the expert pointed out.

- "Quantum Leap": "Q Day " - the moment when quantum computers will be able to crack modern digital ciphers could come as early as next year, experts believe. This could lead to the collapse of the crypto market and destabilize global financial markets.

- Obesity drugs are for everyone, even pets. "Waist sizes are shrinking, life expectancy is increasing, and all food manufacturers are rushing to retool for an 'easier' world," Saxo wrote.

- SpaceX will go public with a valuation of over $1 trillion, turning the "space economy" into a real investment market and launching a boom in orbital and lunar projects.

- The AI model will be appointed as CEO of a Fortune 500 company, a ranking of the largest U.S. corporations.

- Poorly monitored AI agents could fail en masse, causing trillion-dollar losses and the emergence of a new profession of "AI cleaners" - those responsible for cleaning up the digital infrastructure.

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor