BTIG initiates on Absci as leader of 'GLP-1 moment for hair loss'; stock jumps 18%

Shares of Absci Corporation, a biotech developing an experimental treatment for hair loss, surged about 18% on Thursday. Absci’s hair-loss drug could become as much of a blockbuster as Ozempic and Wegovy have been for diabetes and weight-loss treatment, with peak sales potentially reaching $2.2 billion, a BTIG analyst argued in an initiation report on the company. He opened coverage with a "buy" rating on the biotech’s shares, seeing 45% upside.

Absci shares gained 17.8% on Thursday, closing at $6.08 per share. The stock is now worth nearly 75% more than at the start of the year.

BTIG initiated coverage of Absci with a “buy” rating and a $9 per share target price over a 12-month investment horizon. The investment bank believes ABS-201, an AI-designed long-acting antibody developed by Absci, has the potential to become a blockbuster in the hair-loss treatment market. The company also recently announced the formation of a clinical advisory board to explore the drug’s use in endometriosis.

“ABS-201 is a genuinely differentiated asset across two large, underserved markets,” analyst Kambiz Yazdi wrote in a report, as cited by CNBC. The analyst estimates that peak sales of the drug could reach $2.2 billion.

According to the analyst, GLP-1 drugs became successful not only because they worked, but because they addressed “a massive, underserved, and deeply personal consumer need with a convenient, infrequent injectable format.” BTIG notes that roughly 80 million Americans suffer from hair loss, while the FDA last approved a new hair-loss treatment nearly 30 years ago.

In its first-quarter earnings, Absci said its generative AI-designed antibody ABS-201 could become “the first new mechanism of action in androgenetic alopecia in nearly three decades.” The biotech said the targeted dosing interval would be just a few injections per year. It also announced the formation of a clinical advisory board to study the use of ABS-201 for endometriosis, a condition affecting about 10% of women worldwide.

ABS-201 works by blocking the prolactin receptor, a protein found on the surface of cells in the breasts, brain, and other organs. Excess prolactin signaling causes hair follicles to transition more rapidly into the regression phase, while the drug is designed to shift them back into active growth. Existing hair-loss treatments work through different mechanisms.

ABS-201 is currently undergoing phase I/IIa clinical trials for androgenetic alopecia, the most common form of male- and female-pattern hair loss. Absci expects to report preliminary safety, tolerability, and pharmacokinetic data in the second quarter, interim efficacy data in the second half of this year, and full data in early 2027.

The company plans to begin clinical trials in endometriosis patients in the fourth quarter of 2026.

Wall Street broadly shares BTIG’s optimism. Absci stock has nine “buy” ratings versus two “hold” recommendations, according to MarketWatch data. The average target price is $8.79 per share, implying upside of about 45% from the stock’s closing price on Thursday.