Goldilocks, fiscal deadlock, and Buffett's shadow: what do investment gurus expect from 2026?

The tech boom, changing leadership in Asia, and political crisis in the US — investment forecasts from Cathie Wood, Mark Mobius, Ray Dalio, Tom Lee, and David Rosenberg

According to ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood, the economy is emerging from a three-year "sliding" recession into a phase of gradual recovery. The process has already begun in the service sector, and next year Wood expects a powerful rebound in industry based on the "stretched rubber band" principle and a positive surprise in the real estate market.

This momentum should lead to 2026 becoming a year of "perfect equilibrium" ( the so-called Goldilocks year) — a period of strong economic growth with low, possibly even negative, inflation. Wood draws a parallel with 1997, the heyday of the internet, arguing that we are on the verge of an unprecedented productivity boom driven by artificial intelligence. She considers fears of a bubble to be premature: in her opinion, the market is only at the beginning of a large-scale technological cycle.

"So, we believe that next year could be a period of 'perfect equilibrium'. The market seems to be starting to realize this, as it has weathered two severe storms in the past year: tariff turbulence and the government shutdown. It also coped with the Fed's hawkish rhetoric, which intensified after the arrival of Steven Muran, Trump's protégé, to the Fed's board of governors — which, in my opinion, ultimately forced the others to change course. In this regard, there are high hopes for 2026, and the market has already partially priced in this optimism. But if our forecast is correct, economic growth will be much stronger than expected.

Mark Mobius's main vector for 2026 is a fundamental shift in global manufacturing, with India as the main beneficiary. This is primarily due to the weakening of China's position: the founder of Mobius Capital Partners is convinced that companies can no longer rely on a single source of supply, and that this process is irreversible. "Many companies depend on 50% of their components coming from other parts of the world, especially China, but now more and more from India." That is why he is increasing India's share in his portfolio, seeing it as the new global factory.

However, Mobius does not write off China completely, but his forecast is based not on the economy, but on political changes. He believes that there may be a change of power in China and that Xi Jinping's departure will put the country on a market-oriented track: "The focus will shift from state-owned companies to private enterprise, which will be very positive for the market as a whole."

Mobius recommends protecting capital through real assets, including gold, which he considers an essential part of any portfolio. He predicts continued growth in precious metal prices in 2026 in response to the devaluation of fiat money. "And now, with the advent of AI, we will see much more in terms of 'digital' gold... This will be a very interesting development," he states.

Ray Dalio predicts that 2026 will be a critical point for the global economy because accumulated market imbalances will collide with peak political instability in the US and a technology bubble. The investor draws an analogy with the dot-com crash in 2000: today, the AI market is overheated, and it is this hype that could trigger a correction. Dalio sees a fundamental liquidity crisis as the biggest threat in 2026. The volume of global financial liabilities today exceeds the real money supply many times over. As soon as the bubble begins to deflate and investors try to cash out, it will become clear that there is not enough real money in the system to cover all liabilities.

The situation will be exacerbated by the "fiscal impasse" in which Western governments will be completely bogged down by 2026. "The economy, debt dynamics interacting with politics and technology — that's what worries me the most. And I would say, especially after 2026,"he says. As a safety net, Dalio recommends allocating 5-15% of your portfolio to gold.

In addition, Dalio advises taking a more systematic approach to the market: "You must be curious about the mechanics of the process itself: what exactly causes markets to rise or fall. It doesn't matter if you're a day trader or a long-term investor, you need to understand the cause-and-effect relationships. If you're just gambling, you won't have an advantage. The advantage comes from knowing these relationships and being able to bet wisely, because diversification allows you to reduce risk without losing returns."

According to Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee's forecast, Ethereum could reach the $7,000–9,000 range by early 2026. His forecast is based not on market optimism, but on the trend of asset tokenization by Wall Street. Lee is convinced that financial giants such as BlackRock will use blockchain to improve the efficiency of their operations, which will create strong fundamental demand for crypto assets in the coming years.

The analyst considers the current lull and the cryptocurrency's lag behind gold to be a temporary anomaly caused by a market "cleanup." He compares the October collapse of the cryptocurrency market to the crash of the FTX exchange in 2022 — a massive shock that triggered a chain reaction of liquidations. According to Lee, it took the market about two months to digest this shock and find solid ground under its feet. He is convinced that this recovery period is now coming to an end.

Lee still considers Bitcoin to be the main asset for preserving value due to its limited supply: "I like Bitcoin. Right now, it is, so to speak, suffering from 'envy' of gold, whose capitalization exceeded $30 trillion this year. But I will repeat myself: Bitcoin is the benchmark means of saving. Its supply is mathematically limited. Therefore, I believe that next year it will begin its real recovery, and the level of $200,000 seems like a perfectly logical goal."

David Rosenberg, president of Rosenberg Research, warns that in 2026, the main risk to global markets will be a political crisis in the US. He predicts that in the upcoming elections, the opposition could seize control of Congress: "It will be 'game over' for Trump's agenda... he will be bound hand and foot." According to the expert, as soon as the market realizes that Washington no longer guarantees growth, US stocks will be revalued: it will become impossible to maintain the current high values of the S&P index. "I'm not likely to say, 'Oh, this is a great time to take risks in the second half of the year.' Quite the opposite, in fact."

Rosenberg is more optimistic about gold, predicting a bullish trend for at least the next 12 months. He attributes this not to interest from private investors, but to demand from global central banks.

David Rosenberg insists on reducing risks: he advises reducing investments in cyclical sectors and redirecting funds to government bonds (as a stabilizer) and defensive stocks with low volatility. "And let's end with this. Ask yourself: what does Warren do with 30% cash on his balance sheet? He has almost $400 billion in cash... I'm not saying you have to keep 30% in cash, I don't do that myself. But Warren knows what happens when the tide turns. So have liquidity. Because if the bubble bursts — and it is a bubble, I won't even argue with that, not the technology itself, but the behavior of investors — assets will move from weak hands to strong ones. You will need liquidity to pick up those pieces. And I think that's what 2026 will be all about."

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor