Morning in New York: investors fleeing risk

Daily review and forecast of events on the U.S. stock market from Mikhail Denislamov, Deputy Director of Freedom Capital Markets Research.

The movements on the US stock exchanges will continue to be determined by the large-scale process of withdrawal from risky assets. The main trigger will be the nomination of Kevin Warsh to the post of Fed Chairman. This step was seen by market participants as confirmation of a more disciplined and cautious course of monetary policy easing. The sell-offs affected a wide range of assets, including cryptocurrencies and precious metals, which continue to correct after a sharp rise in the first weeks of the new year.

On Saturday, a partial shutdown began in the US due to budgetary disagreements in Congress. The market perceives the event with restraint. According to Polymarket, the probability of suspension of the government for more than six days is estimated at 20%, so this factor should not have a long-term impact on quotes. The House of Representatives plans to consider the updated bill today.

An important macro publication for stock exchange players will be the data of business activity indices in manufacturing from ISM and S&P. The consensus assumes that in both cases the indexes will be below 50 points, i.e. will remain in the contraction zone. Given the Chicago PMI, which reached 54 points, the actual values of manufacturing activity may turn out to be better than forecasts. The return of the index above 50 will confirm the stability of the economy, which, however, may be perceived by the market as a reason for the Fed to keep rates high for longer.

Nearly a third of S&P 500 companies reported quarterly results for February second, with earnings growth guidance for the period raised from 8.1% to 12.9%. Before the start of this Monday's main session, Walt Disney (DIS), Tyson Foods (TSN), Aptiv (APTV), IDEXX Laboratories (IDXX) and Revvity (RVTY) will report. After the close, there will be releases from Palantir (PLTR), NXP Semiconductors (NXPI), Teradyne (TER), Fabrinet (FN) and Simon Property Group (SPG).

Futures on US stock indices demonstrate negative dynamics. We assess the balance of risks for the upcoming trades as negative amid broad-based sell-offs. Volatility will be increased. S&P will open significantly lower relative to Friday's closing level; we focus on index movements in the range of 6830-6940 points (from -1.6% to 0% of the previous session's closing level).

- Nvidia 's (NVDA) CEO lowered expectations for the completion of the $100 billion OpenAI deal announced in September, saying the companies will continue to work closely together despite the uncertainty. He dismissed speculation about his dissatisfaction with OpenAI and said the company intends to make a "colossal" investment in OpenAI, which is likely to be the largest in its history.

-Oracle (ORCL) plans to raise $45-50 billion in debt and equity capital in 2026.

- Alphabet (GOOGL) subsidiary Waymo is in the final stages of closing a $16 billion round of fundraising that will more than double its valuation to $110 billion.

-Ford (F) is discussing an electric vehicle partnership with Xiaomi to accelerate the development of affordable electric cars.

- A surge in demand for memory and other components could put pressure on Apple's (AAPL) margins. Samsung and SK Hynix raise DRAM prices for the corporation.

- The CME tightened margin requirements on gold and silver futures after Friday's massive selloff.

January 30 trading on the U.S. stock exchanges ended on the negative territory. S&P 500 fell by 0.43%, Nasdaq 100 lost 1.28%, Dow Jones fell by 0.36%, Russell 2000 fell by 1.55%.

The technology sector (XLK: -2.04%) became the outsider of the day. The growth leaders were the producers of essential goods (XLP: +1.68%), whose shares have the status of a protective asset.

Of the Magnificent Seven representatives, Tesla (TSLA: +3.32%) shares were going against the market amid reports of SpaceX's plans to merge with the automaker or xAI.

The precious metals market saw large-scale sell-offs. Gold showed the largest decline in a decade, exceeding 10%. For silver, last Friday's session was the worst since 1980: quotes collapsed by more than 30%.

The key political event was Donald Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chairman. Jerome Powell's term expires in May, so Warsh, who is considered a "hawk", will be able to vote only at the June FOMC meeting. Nevertheless, the personnel news contributed to the strengthening of the dollar.

Fundamental pressure on the market was exerted by the manufacturing inflation data for December. The overall PPI rose by 0.5% with a consensus of 0.25%, while the Core PPI jumped by 0.7% with average forecasts of 0.3%. Investors are also reconsidering the benchmarks regarding the adjustment of the MPC given the unexpected improvement in business activity (Chicago PMI entered the growth zone for the first time in 25 months, reaching 54 points) and comments of the representatives of the Fed's leadership Rafael Bostic and Alberto Musalem on the inexpediency of rate cuts.

- Shares of Deckers Outdoor (DECK: +19.4%) soared following the release of its fiscal third quarter report. The company's earnings per share beat expectations by 20%. Accelerated sales of HOKA and UGG brands, higher operating margins, and improved full-year guidance outweighed investors' macroeconomic concerns.

- Energy giants Exxon Mobil (XOM: +0.6%) and Chevron (CVX: +3.3%) closed in positive territory after their quarterly earnings beat forecasts thanks to a focus on low-cost production and effective cost control. Investors' attention was also drawn to the companies' plans to explore investment opportunities in Venezuela, which is seen as a potential driver of long-term production growth.

- The highest subscriber inflow in six years (616,000 vs. 417,000 forecast) was the driver of Verizon Communications ' (VZ: +11.8%) rally. The positive sentiment was reinforced by a strong cash flow outlook for 2026 and the announcement of a $25 billion share buyback program.

- Charter Communications (CHTR: +7.6%) grew thanks to strong EBITDA and free cash flow despite weak revenues. The market positively assessed the unexpected increase in the number of subscribers to video services and the stability of the subscriber base.

- Strong results in the Americas and Europe allowed Air Products (APD: +6.4%) to offset weaker demand in the Middle East and beat forecasts. Analysts noted the improvement in sales volumes and margins, while the confirmation of the full-year forecast convinced investors of the stability of the business.

- The success of the Pet Nutrition segment helped Colgate-Palmolive (CL: +6.0%) report better than expected despite difficulties in the skin care division. The market focused on accelerating sales growth, ignoring the conservative forecast for 2026 due to problems in China.

- The CEO's statement about the preparation of a major M&A deal supported GameStop (GME: +4.7%). In the interview, the top manager called the strategic acquisition a key element of the company's financial recovery plan.

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor