Morning in New York: macro statistics in focus

Daily review and forecast of events on the U.S. stock market from Mikhail Denislamov, Deputy Director of Freedom Capital Markets Research.

This Thursday, the U.S. will release the Consumer Price Index (CPI) statistics for November, which due to the cancelation of the October release will not contain data on the month-to-month dynamics, being limited to the annual comparison. Consensus for the core index: 3.1% YoY, for the overall: +3% YoY. Freedom Broker analysts' forecast: +3.06% YoY (+0.27% Month-to-Month) and +2.92% YoY (+0.226% Month-to-Month), respectively.

The higher overall figure is largely due to the dynamics of fuel prices. With regard to services, the forecast remains moderate. The basic thesis of "inflation under control" remains in place. We also expect limited tariff impact in October-November. An alternative model based on the Mannheim index points to potentially softer dynamics of core inflation.

There will be published data on the number of unemployment claims for the week to December 13 (consensus: 224 thousand, previous value: 236 thousand), which will be an additional benchmark for assessing the situation in the labor market.

Accenture (ACN), Darden Restaurants (DRI), FactSet Research (FDS) and Birkenstock Holding Ltd (BIRK) will report quarterly results before the main session opens. In the postmarket, Nike (NKE), FedEx (FDX), KB Home (KBH) and BlackBerry (BB) will report.

Futures on US indices demonstrate about zero dynamics. We assess the balance of risks for the upcoming trades as neutral with increased volatility. We focus on the S&P 500 fluctuations in the range of 6670-6780 points (from -0.8% to +0.9% to the closing level of the previous session).

- Shares of Micron Technology (MU) reacted positively to the release of its quarterly report and outlook based on rising memory chip prices and demand for AI solutions. The company reported revenue and adjusted EPS of $4.78 billion and $13.64 billion with consensus of $3.94 billion and $12.83 billion, respectively. Haydens for the current quarter assumes revenue of $18.7 billion (±$0.4 billion) and EPS of about $8.42, significantly above market expectations. Management cited double-digit DRAM price growth, stronger demand for HBM and advanced NAND for AI systems, and noted record free cash flow while increasing operating cash flow to $8.41 billion.

- MillerKnoll (MLKN) reported second quarter fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS of $0.43 (consensus: $0.41) and revenue of $955 million (consensus: $943.1 million), down 1.6% YoY. The company noted robust demand from its commercial real estate and healthcare businesses. Its gross margin was 39% and operating cash flow reached $65 mln. The guidance for the current quarter includes sales of $923-963 mln with EPS of $0.42-0.48. Management expects to partially offset tariff pressures in the second half of the year and continue to expand its retail network. The company's shares were moving upward in the postmarket.

- Enerpac Tool Group (EPAC)'s quarterly earnings report was weaker than market expectations. Adjusted EPS declined to $0.36 from last year's $0.4, compared to estimates of $0.37. Revenue declined to $144.2 million, which was 2.4% below consensus. Management characterized the results as "broadly expected," noting solid sales growth in the Americas and stronger order momentum, which supports a cautiously positive outlook for early 2026.

Trading on December 17 on American stock exchanges ended in a noticeable minus. S&P 500 fell by 1.16%, demonstrating negative dynamics for the fourth consecutive session. NASDAQ 100 fell by 1.93%, Dow Jones fell by 0.47%, Russell 2000 - by 1.07%.

The technology sector (XLK: -2.22%), communication services (XLC: -0.72%) and industrials (XLI: -1.62%) were the outsiders. Energy (XLE: +2.21%) and non-cyclical consumer staples (XLP: +0.47%) showed relative resilience.

All representatives of the "Magnificent Seven" showed negative dynamics. The worst performers were Tesla (TSLA: -4.62%) and NVIDIA (NVDA: -3.81%).

The correction in the technology sector was largely triggered by reports that Oracle's (ORCL: -5.4%) and OpenAI's data center project in Michigan could be in jeopardy due to the disruption of the post-Blue Owl (OWL) funding agreement. However, Oracle executives said the project remains on schedule.

Speeches of Fed representatives also failed to change the cautious mood of stock exchange players. The rhetoric of Christopher Waller, a member of the Board of Governors, was moderately "dovish" in nature. He again pointed to the risks of weakening labor market and noted that the current rate remains 50-100 bp above the neutral level, allowing further gradual easing of the policy. At the same time, the head of the FRB Atlanta Rafael Bostic expressed concern about persistent inflation above the target level.

The auction on placement of 20-year trejeris with the volume of $13 bln was successful, the yield was lower than expected, foreign investors showed high demand.

- The deal to merge educational platforms supported the quotations of Udemy (UDMY: +12.7%). The company agreed to merge with Coursera (COUR: -1.3%) for about $2.5 billion. Udemy shareholders will receive 0.8 shares of Coursera for each of their securities, which corresponds to a premium of about 26% to the 30-day average stock price. The deal is expected to close in the second half of 2026.

- Strong results for the second fiscal quarter supported General Mills (GIS: +3.4%). The company beat EPS and revenue forecasts, while the slowdown in organic sales growth was less pronounced than expected. Management reaffirmed the guideline for the current fiscal year and pointed to volume growth in the North America Retail segment despite continued consumer restraint.

- Paramount Skydance (PSKY: -5.4%) stock declined after the board of directors of Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD: -2.4%) recommended that shareholders vote against its hostile takeover bid of $30 per share. Additional pressure on PSKY quotes came from NY Post reports that there are no immediate plans to raise the offer.

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor