Morning in New York: negative background intensifies

Daily review and forecast of events on the U.S. stock market from Mikhail Denislamov, Deputy Director of Freedom Capital Markets Research.

The situation in the Middle East remains in the center of investors' attention. According to media reports, US President Donald Trump continues to promote the initiative to create an international coalition to ensure the safety of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, but a number of countries have so far refrained from direct participation in this alliance. The lack of clear support from allies and continued risks of conflict escalation support uncertainty over oil supplies and may increase volatility in commodity markets.

Against this background, investors today will evaluate a block of macroeconomic statistics, which can affect their guidelines for adjusting the monetary policy of the Fed. Today will be published weekly ADP data on the number of new job openings (recall that in the previous similar period this indicator amounted to 15.5 thousand), which will allow to assess the stability of the labor market and adjust interest rate forecasts. Also in focus will be the March index of business activity in the service sector in New York (consensus: -20 points, February: -25.7 points). Pending home sales data for February (consensus: -0.6%, January:- 0.8%) will add to the real estate market outlook.

HUYA (HUYA) and Tencent Music (TME) will report before the opening of the main session. After the close of trading , Oklo (OKLO), Lululemon (LULU), DocuSign (DOCU ) and ZTO Express (ZTO) will report quarterly results.

Futures on American stock indices demonstrate negative dynamics. We assess the balance of risks for the upcoming session as negative with increased volatility.

- Shares of Green Dot (GDOT) are gaining more than 6% on the premarket after the delayed release of its fourth-quarter earnings. The company's revenue exceeded market expectations, while the growth of adjusted EBITDA accelerated. Investors took these results as a signal of business stabilization and reduction of risks associated with the delayed quarterly release.

- DocGo (DCGO) is up more than 14% as its revenue for the quarter came in at $74.9 million with a consensus of $70.3 million. DocGo management raised its revenue guidance for 2026 from $280-300 million to $290-310 million, which the market saw as a sign of improving operating performance dynamics and resilient demand for the company's services.

- Shares of Beyond Meat (BYND) are losing about 5% in the premarket after the company reported that it has postponed the filing of its 10-K annual report and identified problems in internal controls. According to preliminary data, the company's quarterly revenue came in at about $61 mln, while the average market expectation was $63 mln. This added to the pressure on the quotes, adding to the pessimistic outlook for demand recovery.

- Shares of AEye (LIDR) are up more than 34% ahead of the main session after the company announced that it is collaborating with NVIDIA (NVDA) on the Halos AI Systems Inspection Lab program. The news was seen as a confirmation of the company's technological relevance, reinforcing interest in its solutions in the AI and autonomous transportation segment.

March 16 trading on American stock exchanges ended with growth, although below the intraday highs. S&P 500 added 1.01%, NASDAQ 100 grew by 1.13%, Dow Jones rose by 0.83%, Russell 2000 - by 0.94%.

All 11 sectors included in the broad market index closed in the green zone. The high-tech sector (XLK: +1.45%) was the leader in growth, supported by leading IT companies and on the back of investors' continued interest in the topic of artificial intelligence. The most modest result was demonstrated by suppliers of consumer goods (XLP: +0.28%).

All companies of the "Magnificent Seven" traded in the plus, which became one of the key drivers of market growth. The greatest activity of buyers was observed in the securities of Amazon (AMZN: +1.96% at the close of trading on March 16) and Meta Platforms (META: +2.24%). In general, bigtech was supported by optimistic expectations from the NVIDIA GTC conference.

One of the key positive drivers was some reduction of tension around the Strait of Hormuz. Reports about the possible formation of an international coalition to escort tankers supported risk appetite. Nevertheless, attacks on the energy infrastructure of Middle Eastern states and the lack of clear de-escalation scenarios continue to create uncertainty for commodity markets. Against this backdrop, WTI crude oil corrected by 5.3%, while hydrocarbon prices remain highly volatile.

The Empire State business activity index fell to -0.2 points in March, missing expectations. Industrial production for February increased by 0.2% m/m, slightly above consensus. At the same time, the NAHB housing market index rose to 38 points, slightly above average forecasts.

- NVIDIA CEO (NVDA: +1.6% at the close of trading on March 16) Jensen Huang spoke at the GTC conference. The company's management raised its minimum estimate of total data center revenue to $1 trillion by 2027 and presented new solutions for AI infrastructure. This boosted investor confidence in the company's continued leadership against the backdrop of steady demand for computing power.

- Nebius (NBIS: +15%) announced a five-year agreement with Meta Platforms (META) for up to $27 billion to provide AI computing capacity. The deal was one of the largest in the AI infrastructure segment and reinforced expectations of sustained demand from hyperscalers, despite the company's forecast remaining unchanged.

- Alibaba (BABA: +1.1%) was in the spotlight with the news that it will create a new AI division, Alibaba Token Hub, under the leadership of CEO Eddie Wu. The structure will integrate the company's key developments, including Tongyi Laboratory, Qwen and MaaS direction. The reorganization is aimed at accelerating the monetization of AI solutions and improving management efficiency.

- Intuit (INTU: +2.8%) announced the suspension of its management's share sale and acceleration of its buyback program, which was seen by the market as a signal of management's confidence in the company's current valuation and the sustainability of its cash flows.

- Dollar Tree (DLTR: +6.4%) reported fourth-quarter revenue of $5.45 billion, which was in line with average market expectations, and the company's adjusted earnings per share came in at $2.56 with a consensus of $2.52. Investors noted signs of stabilizing operating performance despite the retailer's restrained guidance for fiscal 2026.

- Public Storage (PSA: -1.7%) has agreed to acquire National Storage Affiliates (NSA: +30%) in an all-stock transaction at a valuation of about $10.5 billion. NSA shareholders will receive 0.14 shares of PSA stock, which implies a premium of about 35% to the previous close. Pressure on the acquirer's securities is due to integration risks and potential dilution of financials.

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor