Morning in New York: news agenda remains tense

Daily review and forecast of events on the U.S. stock market from Mikhail Denislamov, Deputy Director of Freedom Capital Markets Research.

Geopolitics will continue to determine the dynamics of the upcoming trades. The information background around Iran is still contradictory. Washington declares about the ongoing contacts and the desire of the parties to conclude peace, while Tehran denies the fact of direct negotiations and says only about the exchange of signals through intermediaries. At the same time, military rhetoric is intensifying. Iran says it is ready to defend strategic infrastructure, including Kharq Island, through which most of its oil exports pass, and warns of possible retaliatory measures in case of escalation of tensions. An additional factor remains the oil market. Stress scenarios of oil prices rising as high as $200 a barrel are being discussed. There are assumptions that the volume of supplies of this raw material from Saudi Arabia to Asia in April will be lower than usual.

Today will see the release of Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 21 (consensus: 210,000, prior: 205,000), as well as Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 14 (consensus: 1.849 million, prior: 1.857 million). In addition, the FRB Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity index for March (consensus: 3 points, February: 5 points) will be released.

The key factor for market participants will be the speeches of Fed officials Lisa Cook, Stephen Miran, Philip Jefferson and Michael Barr. In the center of attention will be their comments on the impact of the oil crisis on inflation and economic growth, as well as signals regarding the further trajectory of the interest rate. Softer rhetoric may support expectations of continued monetary easing, with the focus on inflation risks being perceived as a constraint on rate cuts.

Futures on American stock indices demonstrate restrainedly negative dynamics after yesterday's growth. We assess the balance of risks for the upcoming trading session as neutral with increased volatility.

- Navan (NAVN) shares added more than 25%, reacting to strong reporting and a forecast that was better than average market expectations. The company accelerated revenue growth, showed a marked increase in bookings and ended the year with positive operating cash flow for the first time, reinforcing confidence in the business' entry into sustainable profitability.

- Precigen (PGEN) rises more than 17% on the back of reporting and positive signals on the commercial launch of PAPZIMEOS, demand for which has intensified in early 2026. According to management's calculations, the current liquidity with the revenue from the new product should be sufficient to reach cash flow breakeven by the end of the year.

- Quotes of Worthington Steel (WS) lose 14%, as its reporting disappointed stock players. Despite an increase in revenue, the company's operating profit declined markedly. The pressure on the result was exacerbated by lower efficiency of part of the business and costs associated with the Kloeckner deal.

- Enerpac Tool Group (EPAC) shares are correcting more than 4% after posting quarterly results and updating its outlook. The company reported sales growth, but its profitability deteriorated due to weak performance of its EMEA service business and restructuring costs, among other factors.

- Celcuity (CELC) quotes are down 1% on the back of the quarterly release despite the continuation of significant clinical catalysts. The pressure is likely due to mounting losses and high cash spending, while investors await further regulatory decisions and new data on the key gedatolisib program.

Trading on March 25 on American stock exchanges ended on a positive territory, although the indices moved away from the maximums by the end of the day. S&P 500 added 0.54%, Nasdaq 100 rose by 0.67%, Dow Jones rose by 0.66%, and Russell 2000 rose by 1.23%. The positive dynamics was supported by leading technology companies.

Raw materials suppliers (XLB: +1.98%) and the health care industry (XLV: +1%) were the top gainers. The cyclical consumer goods sector (XLY: +0.96%) and industrial companies (XLI: +0.67%) also looked better than the broad market. Energy (XLE: -0.44%) was the outsider due to the correction in oil prices (WTI: -2.2%, Brent: -2.2%). The real estate industry (XLRE: -0.05%) showed a slight decline.

The key driver of growth was the improvement in sentiment amid expectations of the end of the U.S.-Iran conflict. The market was gaining on reports of a possible truce and intensification of diplomatic contacts. Additional support for the "bulls" was provided by a 4-7 bp decline in Treasury bond yields, despite not very successful auctions, including the placement of five-year securities, which was worse than expected and reflected restrained demand.

Ma data signaled continued inflationary pressures: import prices rose 1.3% (consensus: +0.6%) mom in February, while export prices climbed 1.5% (consensus: +0.45%) mom, hitting multi-year highs.

- Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT: +35%) reported positive early results from clinical trials of drugs for the treatment of rare muscle diseases, raising expectations for the potential of its gene therapy.

- Arm Holdings (ARM: +16.4%) announced that it will start selling its own chips for the first time, and presented a long-term forecast that assumes significant revenue growth. The management expects the figure to reach about $25 bln within five years. Meta Platforms will be Arm's first major customer.

- JetBlue Airways (JBLU: +13.4%) is bringing in consultants to evaluate a possible sale of the business or merger with other carriers.

- Chewy (CHWY: +13.3%) reported better-than-expected results in terms of EBITDA and profitability, while its revenue was roughly in line with market forecasts. The stock was further supported by strong net sales guidance.

- Maze Therapeutics (MAZE: -35.2%) posted positive efficacy data for its kidney disease drug, but investors were dubious about the release due to the limited patient sample and heterogeneous results.

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor